Key Points
As of this writing, Costco shares are in the red for the year.
Adjusted comparable sales slowed in November compared to October.
With a fee increase in the rearview mirror, investors likely have to wait at least a few more years before Costco raises its membership fee again.
- 10 stocks we like better than Costco Wholesale ›
Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) shares are slightly negative for 2025 even as the S&P 500 posts strong gains.
What gives?
Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now, when you join Stock Advisor. See the stocks »
There’s a lot to like about the business. The membership-based wholesale retailer’s sales growth remains solid, and a recent membership fee increase should help bolster profits this year.
With that said, even though the business continues to perform well, it may not be good enough to justify the stock’s incredibly high valuation. Indeed, Costco commands a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio that towers over faster-growing big tech companies like Nvidia and Apple.
Here are some of the main reasons I think shares have struggled this year.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. Sales growth isn’t living up to the stock’s valuation
Costco recently closed out fiscal 2025 with another solid year of growth. The company’s revenue rose about 8% for both the fourth quarter and the full year. This revenue growth was helped by comparable sales (adjusted to exclude the impact of changes in foreign exchange and gas prices) increasing 6.4% and 7.6% for Q4 and full year, respectively.
While these are good numbers, there are two problems. First of all, the company’s Q4 comparable store-sales growth rate is slower than the full-year growth rate, suggesting a slight slowdown. Making matters worse, Costco’s November monthly sales growth was a notch softer than October. Specifically, Costco’s adjusted comparable store sales rose 6.4% in November, down slightly from adjusted comparable store sales growth of 6.8% in October.
2. The stock is lacking a meaningful catalyst
A second piece of the puzzle is the timing of Costco‘s most important profit driver: membership fees.
After a long stretch without a fee increase, Costco raised annual dues in the U.S. and Canada late last year. It increased the base Gold Star fee by $5 and the Executive tier by $10. While that change contributed to a 14% jump in membership fees in fiscal 2025’s Q4, this means that the company will be up against a tough comparison this time next year. Even more, Costco has historically boosted membership prices only about every five-and-a-half years — and management has signaled that it treats these hikes cautiously, using them sparingly and reinvesting part of the extra income into the value of its products and richer perks instead of dropping every dollar to the bottom line. Therefore, with the latest increase just over a year old, another hike is unlikely for several more years.
In other words, Costco is unlikely to benefit from another membership fee increase for years.
3. The stock’s valuation is hard to justify
All of this feeds into the main headwind: valuation.
A slight deceleration in comparable sales growth or a lack of major catalysts in the coming years wouldn’t normally be a thesis breaker for a company that consistently grows and boasts competitive advantages from both scale and a loyal customer base. But the stock’s high valuation unfortunately demands high standards.
Even after the recent pullback, Costco trades at about 49 times earnings. Considering that the S&P 500 has a P/E of 25, it’s easy to see why investors should demand spectacular performance from Costco.
Paying that kind of price can still work if growth reaccelerates or if margins expand meaningfully. But given the company’s model, which centers around passing any savings it achieves from scale onto its customers, rapid margin expansion is unlikely. Furthermore, given how established its presence is in the U.S. and Canada, Costco would likely need a huge lift from international markets to see sales growth reaccelerate meaningfully.
With all of this said, I love Costco. I love shopping there, and I love the business model.
But I don’t love the stock — not at this price.
Should you invest $1,000 in Costco Wholesale right now?
Before you buy stock in Costco Wholesale, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Costco Wholesale wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $556,658!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,124,157!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 1,001% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 194% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.
*Stock Advisor returns as of December 1, 2025
Daniel Sparks and his clients have positions in Apple. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Costco Wholesale, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
