Whether and for how long Taiwanese troops can hold off a Chinese invasion force may depend on how much ammunition Taiwan has stockpiled for a potentially apocalyptic battle.
Taipei’s exact munitions stocks are a closely guarded secret, but there’s evidence that too few rounds are held for certain key weapon systems, which would quickly fall silent as Chinese troops stormed ashore and Chinese ships blockaded Taiwan’s ports.
Taiwan depends too heavily on foreign-made ammunition—supplies of which it may struggle to boost on short notice, especially if the United States doesn’t respond to a Chinese attack by immediately and forcefully intervening on Taiwan’s behalf.
It’s ominous that US President Donald Trump’s 2026 National Defense Strategy doesn’t mention Taiwan even once and pledges ‘more limited’ support to allies it does mention. Taipei must plan for the worst.
Fortunately for the Taiwanese, there’s a possible workaround for the ammo problem. Taiwan may be struggling to stash enough artillery rounds, but there’s nothing stopping it from stockpiling a new alternative: tiny explosive drones. Taiwan’s high-tech industry could produce these in huge numbers and without outside help.
These drones would be even more important in the alarming scenario where Taiwan fought alone—even if it only temporarily fought alone. But a pivot to drones should begin now.
‘The hard-won battlefield experience of Ukraine would suggest that massive munitions stockpiles are needed to sustain high-intensity operations,’ said Ian Easton, an associate professor at the US Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute. (Easton stressed that his views were his own and not those of the Naval War College or the US military.)
Ukrainian and Russian artillery batteries are burning through millions of shells every year. Even the best-resourced armed forces in the world weren’t ready for such a rate of consumption. Before Russia widened its war on Ukraine in February 2022, the US Army’s sole artillery shell factory produced just 14,000 155 mm shells a month. By 2024, the Russian army in Ukraine was firing more than 14,000 shells of similar calibres every two days, and the Ukrainians perhaps a third as many.
The US has since boosted shell output to nearly 100,000 a month, but it took four years, billions of dollars in investment and great political will to get there. And the US Army and Marine Corps are still years away from having enough shells in reserve to wage a sustained war on the scale of the war in Ukraine.
It’s not inconceivable that Taiwanese would need to fire as many artillery shells as the Ukrainians fire. The Taiwanese army’s roughly 2,100 big guns slightly outnumber the Ukrainian army’s own pre-war force of 1,800 big guns, after all. The Russians attacked with hundreds of thousands of troops; the Chinese probably would, too.
That means Taipei should be prepared to shoot thousands of rounds a day. For smaller-calibre guns, such as the Taiwanese army’s and marine corps’ hundreds of 105 mm howitzers, it’s not a problem. The army and marines have had decades to build up ammo stocks.
‘I’d be pretty darn surprised if Taiwan ran out of 105 [mm] ammo in the first two months of fighting,’ said Eric Heginbotham, a principal research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Security Studies Program.
But according to Heginbotham, it’s a different story for Taiwan’s newest US-made M-109 Paladin howitzers, 60 of which are on order under a US$4 billion deal. The Paladins fire the same 155 mm rounds the Americans are scrambling to stockpile. These shells are the same size as the shells that Taiwan’s older 155 mm guns fire but are also a slightly different design.
That means whatever older 155 mm shells Taiwan has saved up for its older guns don’t work for its newer guns. Yes, Taiwan paid for some shells alongside the Paladins. But those shells are coming from the same depleted inventory the Pentagon is struggling to boost—and may come too late.
So there’s a reason why the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense is investing US$440 million (A$620 million) in a new 155 mm shell production line at its Armaments Bureau’s 202nd Factory. But if the US’s experience is indicative, spooling up could take years.
Deprived of certain calibres of ammo, Taiwanese forces could do what Ukrainian forces did when Republicans in the US Congress withheld aid to Ukraine, including artillery shells, for several critical months starting in early 2024. They could use explosive drones, instead.
A 1 kg quadcopter drone packing a 500-gram warhead and ranging around 8 km can’t fully replace a 155 mm shell arcing 19 km with 55 kg of explosive fill. But it’s better than nothing. And where a shell might cost $5,000 and require precision milling, a drone costs just $500 and all of its parts are readily available to even the smallest workshop.
Taiwan’s defense ministry is already planning to acquire as many as 200,000 explosive drones as part of its $39.5-billion special military procurement package. But according to Easton, Taiwanese forces need millions of such drones.
Equally importantly, Easton said, Taiwanese authorities must train tens of thousands of reservists and civilian volunteers to pilot the drones. These tens of thousands of pilots and their millions of drones could sustain Taiwan’s defence even as many howitzers go cold.
