Alexander Stubb has had a busy two years. Since being inaugurated as Finland’s president in March 2024, he has become one of Europe’s most visible leaders, shuttling between negotiations in Brussels, Davos, Kyiv and Washington, building relationships with world leaders and even forging an unlikely friendship with US President Donald Trump. And in his free time, Stubb managed to write a book about international relations.
Prior to becoming president, Stubb had served as Finland’s prime minister, in other ministerial positions and as a professor at the European University Institute in Florence.
In The Triangle of Power, Stubb paints with a broad brush. His core argument is that our changing world is being shaped by three forces, the global west (the United States, Europe, Japan and their allies), the global east (China, Russia and smaller autocratic regimes) and the global south (middle powers and small countries across Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America).
The interplay between these forces will determine the shape of the world to come. The west and the east are the two extremes, while the south will decide which way the pendulum swings.
According to Stubb, the global order is at a crossroads, facing two choices, an order based on the spheres of influence of the major powers or an order based on common rules that protect sovereignty and restrict the harmful behaviour of states. The key question is whether we will allow great powers to determine our rules. To maintain its influence and the multilateralism of the system, the west needs to get the south on its side. The global south is interest-based and is following developments closely to see which side can offer the best terms for cooperation.
To highlight to the reader the chasm between the west and the south, Stubb describes a discussion at the 2023 World Economic Forum in Davos on preparing for a new geopolitical era. Led by western countries, the first half of the meeting focused on the war in Ukraine, until a delegate from the south stood up and asked why they were discussing Ukraine rather than the shifting geopolitical order. ‘You all just don’t get it, do you? The world has changed, but you have not.’
Stubb’s argument has two weaknesses: he pays scant attention to the deep divisions in the global west, and he overestimates the cohesion of the south. The south comprises widely divergent countries spread over four regions and has in the past lacked strong organisations and a common voice.
At the same time, the reader searches in vain for a discussion of how deeply the Trump administration has divided the west. At least in the short term, it is the policies of the US rather than the global south that are tipping the balance of power in favour of China and the global east.
Stubb’s answer is what he calls values-based realism, ‘a way to hold our liberal values while working humbly and respectfully with those who do not share them.’ The term was cited by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in his speech last month in Davos. However, while Carney tells us that the rules-based order is not coming back, the more optimistic Stubb calls for revitalising the global order ‘with a fairer distribution of power that balances varying global interests’. What Carney calls a rupture Stubb describes as a crossroads.
The Triangle of Power reads like both a university textbook and a call for global action, reflecting the fact that it was written mainly while Stubb was a university professor but finalised when he was president of Finland.
Stubb spices up his narrative with anecdotes about his high-level contacts, from a terse exchange of text messages with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov just days after Russia launched its 2022 attack on Ukraine to a relaxed game of golf with Trump followed by meetings at Mar-a-Lago.
Stubb’s call for global action comprises three pillars: strengthening the role of open, free and democratic societies; strengthening regional cooperation among states; and reforming the governance structures of the United Nations and other major multilateral institutions.
He singles out as a priority reforming decision-making in the UN Security Council, to expand its regional membership and eliminate the single-state veto. However, several permanent members of the council are strongly opposed. It’s hard to disagree with the values behind Stubb’s proposed reforms, but in today’s fractured world it’s less clear that they are realistic.
On completing his present term as president, Stubb will be eligible to run for a second six-year term, until 2036. The Triangle of Power provides valuable insights into the thinking of a European leader who looks set to be internationally active for many years to come.
