Felix Wertli is the Swiss Ambassador for the Environment
At COP28 in Dubai in 2023, countries sent a long-awaited political signal by agreeing to “transition away from fossil fuels” in energy systems. For the first time, the direction of travel was acknowledged collectively. Yet, this signal remains abstract. What matters now is the implementation that supports development, energy access, and economic transformation.
The transition away from fossil fuels offers opportunities: it can create jobs, strengthen energy security and advance sustainable development, including universal access to affordable and reliable energy. At the same time, the implementation challenges are significant and unevenly distributed across geographies. It requires large-scale investment, careful management of shifting price structures, and safeguards to prevent economic disruption and social instability. This is why countries agreed in Dubai that the transition must be just, orderly and equitable.
Against this backdrop, Brazil’s proposal to develop a roadmap to operationalise the transition away from fossil fuels was both timely and necessary. Supported by more than 80 countries, it responded to a clear gap in the international process: the absence of guidance on how to move from political commitment to implementation. The proposal did not reach consensus, due to opposition from a number of highly fossil-fuel dependent countries. They were concerned that a roadmap could translate political commitments into tangible expectations and measures and could pressure them to transition faster than their economies can sustain.
This outcome illustrates a broader challenge within the UNFCCC. The problem is no longer a lack of negotiated ambition. It is the growing disconnect between agreed objectives and the collective ability to implement them.
Brazil’s decision to proceed by launching two roadmaps in its own capacity, one on transitioning away from fossil fuels and one on halting deforestation, therefore deserves strong support. This approach supports multilateralism. It recognises that complementary initiatives are sometimes necessary to advance implementation among a coalition of the willing, especially when formal processes stall and full consensus is not possible.
Developing the roadmap outside the COP process allows countries willing to engage constructively to move faster, provide greater clarity and focus on practical solutions, without being bound by the consensus rule. Importantly, such an initiative should be understood as a complement to the UNFCCC, not a substitute, and as a mean to inform future multilateral decisions.
How roadmaps can succeed
For the roadmap to succeed, several conditions must be met.
First, ownership must be shared. Participating countries need to see their national circumstances, development priorities and constraints reflected in the process. This requires collective leadership. Brazil’s role should be that of a convener and facilitator, not a single agenda-setter. The upcoming meeting co-hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands on the Just Transition Away from Fossil fuels offers an important opportunity to shape the roadmap collaboratively from the outset.
Second, the roadmap should be global, but not necessarily universal. All countries should be invited to participate, with constructive engagement as the sole entry criterion. Universal participation is not required at the beginning. What matters is broad representation across regions and levels of development, including a critical mass of G20 members, to ensure political relevance and economic weight. Countries should also be able to join at later stages as confidence in the process grows.
Third, partnerships must extend beyond environment ministries. For many countries, the transition away from fossil fuels is inseparable from questions of industrial policy, fiscal stability and energy security. Energy, finance and economy ministries should therefore also be involved. Engagement with sub-national actors, the private sector, and international organisations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), OECD, existing coalitions like “Beyond Oil and Gas (BOGA) and think-tanks like the World Resources Institute (WRI) can further strengthen the roadmap’s impact.
Fourth, the roadmap must be a sustained process, not a one-off report. Experience shows that standalone reports rarely change outcomes. What is needed is an ongoing platform for dialogue, learning and cooperation, including among fossil fuel–producing countries.
Fifth, linkages to the UNFCCC process should be explicit. The second Global Stocktake in 2028 could serve as a natural milestone to reflect progress, extract lessons and feed relevant elements of the roadmap back into the multilateral process, helping to inform the next generation of nationally determined contributions.
Finally, the roadmap must adopt a broad, economy-wide perspective. Even in the absence of binding targets, clear signals and concrete measures can shape markets and guide investment decisions. The roadmap should help clarify what the transition implies for public and private investment, trade, subsidies and public support. It should address critical issues such as new fossil fuel investments, inefficient subsidies or stranded assets. It must tackle significant barriers, e.g. the reduction of the costs of capital across the various geographic regions to increase investment flows.
It should also define the roles of key actors, including multilateral development banks, in de-risking investments, crowding in private capital and supporting enabling policy environments. Just as importantly, the roadmap should serve as a platform for voluntary commitments and facilitate technical assistance and capacity-building.
If designed well, the roadmap can become an enabling instrument, which can support planning and investment and build on the momentum we see in the real economy. It can be one that helps countries to develop credible national transition pathways and send political signals. At a moment when trust in multilateral processes is fragile, it can also demonstrate that pragmatic, inclusive cooperation remains possible. It is not about additional obligations, but about gaining the clarity, support and policy space needed to deliver a just and sustainable transition.
