Iran’s Foreign Minister and the Sultan of Oman met to discuss regional security and the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran diplomatic meeting market for April 30 sits at
The April 30 sub-market is fully priced at 100% YES, meaning traders treat a meeting as a certainty. The June 30 market rose from 9% to 14% YES over the past 24 hours. Oman has historically acted as a back-channel between Washington and Tehran, and this latest meeting with Iran’s Foreign Minister fits that pattern, potentially making further US-Iran talks more likely.
Combined 24-hour trading volume across these markets: $333,553 in face value and $27,334 in actual USDC traded. The June 30 market has a book depth of $164 required to shift the price by 5 points, which means moderate liquidity and real sensitivity to large orders. The biggest single move was a 4-point drop to 13% YES at 5:57 PM.
The Iran-Oman discussions are a diplomatic signal, not a concrete agreement. Traders buying YES on a US-Iran meeting by June 30 at 14¢ per share would see a
Watch for announcements from the White House or Iran’s Foreign Ministry about formal meeting arrangements. Oman’s position as a go-between is the key variable; any change in its engagement level would likely move the June 30 market.
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