In brief
- Ethereum’s 90-day options skew sits at -2.8%, notably less bearish than Bitcoin’s -4%, indicating traders see less downside risk for the former.
- Analysts link Ethereum’s relative strength to the recent Fusaka upgrade, major treasury purchases, and a more favorable macro backdrop for rate cuts.
- Despite the improved skew, experts caution that the market is far from the bullish extremes of early Q4 and lacks sustained ETF inflows for a major rally.
Ethereum traders are positioning with more optimism than their Bitcoin counterparts, options data shows.
Despite a broadly cautious investor stance, the divergence suggests that traders see less immediate downside risk for the second-largest crypto by market cap than for Bitcoin.
That outlook aligns with recent spot price performance.
Ethereum is trading just above $3,100, down around 2% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. Its year-to-date performance of -3% is slightly better than Bitcoin’s -6%, though both assets have declined by double-digits since October, with Ethereum down 19% and Bitcoin down 25%.
For longer-dated options, Ethereum’s 90-day skew sits at -1.7%, which is “noticeably more bullish” than Bitcoin’s -4%, Sean Dawson, head of research at on-chain options platform Derive, told Decrypt. “In other words, traders are more eager to buy insurance for Bitcoin than for Ethereum.”
The negative skew for both assets shows a continued greater appetite for protective put options than for bullish calls. However, the depth of that bearishness is where they diverge.
Despite a recent recovery fueled by dovish Federal Reserve sentiment, the market is “very far from the bullish sentiment we saw at the start of Q4,” Dawson said. He advises caution in the weeks ahead.
Ethereum bears retreat
Signals point to a tentative thaw in bearishness for Ethereum specifically.
“We are seeing signs of reduced bearishness in Ethereum options markets, though derivatives traders are still falling short of pricing in a complete ‘Santa rally’,” Thahbib Rahman, research analyst at crypto research platform Block Scholes, told Decrypt.
The put-call skew for short-dated Ethereum contracts briefly turned positive recently, marking the most bullish positioning since late October, Rahman highlighted. Furthermore, the firm’s proprietary BlockScholes Risk-Appetite Index for Ethereum appears to be bottoming, a pattern that has historically preceded sentiment turnarounds.
Rahman drew parallels to the market structure in May 2025, which preceded a significant rally.
“Back then, the rally began on the back of a more positive macro environment, the Pectra upgrade was launched, and in the following weeks, Ethereum spot ETFs had their best run of inflows,” Rahman said.
Similar catalysts are in play now, he noted: markets are pricing in a potential December Fed rate cut, Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade went live to improve layer-2 efficiency, and entities like BitMine have made major ETH purchases. The missing component, he said, is a sustained wave of inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs, which would be needed to fuel a more decisive bullish move.
The technical positioning, noted in options market data, underscores a market that, while not expecting a major rally, is cautiously downgrading the probability of an Ethereum-specific downturn.
The perspective from retail prediction markets, however, contrasts with the cautious skew in professional options. Users on Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan, give Bitcoin a 75% chance of reaching $100,000 before $69,000, a notably more bullish outlook than the 49% chance they assign Ethereum hitting $4,000 before $2,500.
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