Pfahl, S., O’Gorman, P. A. & Fischer, E. M. Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 423–427 (2017).
Zhang, W., Furtado, K., Zhou, T., Wu, P. & Chen, X. Constraining extreme precipitation projections using past precipitation variability. Nat. Commun. 13, 6319 (2022).
Woollings, T. et al. The role of Rossby waves in polar weather and climate. Weather Clim. Dyn. 4, 61–80 (2023).
de Vries, A. J. et al. Breaking Rossby waves drive extreme precipitation in the world’s arid regions. Commun. Earth Environ. 5, 493 (2024).
Mishra, A. N. et al. Long-lasting intense cut-off lows to become more frequent in the Northern Hemisphere. Commun. Earth Environ. 6, 115 (2025).
Gründemann, G. J., van de Giesen, N., Brunner, L. & van der Ent, R. Rarest rainfall events will see the greatest relative increase in magnitude under future climate change. Commun. Earth Environ. 3, 235 (2022).
Xiong, J. & Yang, Y. Climate change and hydrological extremes. Curr. Clim. Change Rep. 11, 1 (2024).
Faranda, D. et al. ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate. Weather Clim. Dyn. 5, 959–983 (2024).
Philip, S. et al. A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses. Adv. Stat. Climatol. Meteorol. Oceanogr. 6, 177–203 (2020).
Extreme downpours increasing in southeastern Spain as fossil fuel emissions heat the climate – World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-downpours-increasing-in-southern-spain-as-fossil-fuel-emissions-heat-the-climate/ (2024).
Faranda, D., Alvarez-Castro, M. C., Ginesta, M., Coppola, E. & Pons, F. M. E. Heavy precipitations in October 2024 South-Eastern Spain DANA mostly strengthened by human-driven climate change. Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/14052042 (2024).
Green, A. C., Fowler, H. J., Blenkinsop, S. & Davies, P. A. Precipitation extremes in 2024. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 6, 243–245 (2025).
AEMET. ESTUDIO SOBRE LA SITUACIÓN DE LLUVIAS INTENSAS, LOCALMENTE TORRENCIALES Y PERSISTENTES, EN LA PENÍNSULA IBÉRICA Y BALEARES ENTRE LOS DÍAS 28 DE OCTUBRE Y 4 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2024. https://www.aemet.es/documentos/es/conocermas/recursos_en_linea/publicaciones_y_estudios/estudios/estudio_28_oct_4_nov_2024.pdf (2024).
Llasat, M. C. Spain’s flash floods reveal a desperate need for improved mitigation efforts. Nature 635, 787–787 (2024).
Fekete, A., Estrany, J. & Ramírez, M.ÁA. Cascading impact chains and recovery challenges of the 2024 Valencia catastrophic floods. Discov. Sustain. 6, 586 (2025).
Huang, T. et al. Synoptic background conditions and moisture transport for producing the extreme heavy rainfall event in Valencia in 2024. Atmos. Ocean. Sci. Lett. 18, 100666 (2025).
Insua-Costa, D., Miguez-Macho, G. & Llasat, M. C. Local and remote moisture sources for extreme precipitation: a study of the two catastrophic 1982 western Mediterranean episodes. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 23, 3885–3900 (2019).
Cardoso Pereira, S., Marta-Almeida, M., Carvalho, A. C. & Rocha, A. Extreme precipitation events under climate change in the Iberian Peninsula. Int. J. Climatol. 40, 1255–1278 (2020).
Lorente-Plazas, R. et al. Unusual atmospheric-river-like structures coming from Africa induce extreme precipitation over the Western Mediterranean Sea. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 125, e2019JD031280 (2020).
Gonzalez-Hidalgo, J. C., Beguería, S., Peña-Angulo, D. & Blanco, V. T. Catalogue and analysis of extraordinary precipitation events in the Spanish Mainland, 1916–2022. Int. J. Climatol. 45, e8785 (2025).
Beguería, S., Tomas-Burguera, M., Serrano-Notivoli, R., Barriopedro, D. & Vicente-Serrano, S. M. Evolution of extreme precipitation in Spain: contribution of atmospheric dynamics and long-term trends. Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess. 39, 2137–2157 (2025).
González-Alemán, J. J. et al. Anthropogenic warming had a crucial role in triggering the historic and destructive Mediterranean Derecho in summer 2022. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 104, E1526–E1532 (2023).
Fowler, H. J. et al. Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 2, 107–122 (2021).
Argüeso, D., Marcos, M. & Amores, A. Storm Daniel fueled by anomalously high sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean. Npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 7, 307 (2024).
Athanase, M., Sánchez-Benítez, A., Monfort, E., Jung, T. & Goessling, H. F. How climate change intensified storm Boris’ extreme rainfall, revealed by near-real-time storylines. Commun. Earth Environ. 5, 676 (2024).
Martín, M. L. et al. Major role of marine heatwave and anthropogenic climate change on a giant hail event in Spain. Geophys. Res. Lett. 51, e2023GL107632 (2024).
Cheng, L. et al. Record high temperatures in the ocean in 2024. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 42, 1092–1109 (2025).
Fischer, E. M. & Knutti, R. Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 986–991 (2016).
O’Gorman, P. A. & Muller, C. J. How closely do changes in surface and column water vapor follow Clausius–Clapeyron scaling in climate change simulations? Environ. Res. Lett. 5, 025207 (2010).
Schneider, T., O’Gorman, P. A. & Levine, X. J. Water vapor and the dynamics of climate changes. Rev. Geophys. 48, RG3001–RG3022 (2010).
Donat, M. G., Lowry, A. L., Alexander, L. V., O’Gorman, P. A. & Maher, N. More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 508–513 (2016).
Da Silva, N. A. & Haerter, J. O. Super-Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of extreme precipitation explained by shift from stratiform to convective rain type. Nat. Geosci. 18, 382–388 (2025).
Wood, R. R. & Ludwig, R. Analyzing internal variability and forced response of subdaily and daily extreme precipitation over Europe. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2020GL089300 (2020).
Zappa, G. & Shepherd, T. G. Storylines of atmospheric circulation change for European regional climate impact assessment. J. Clim. 30, 6561–6577 (2017).
Vicente-Serrano, S. M. et al. High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation. Nature 639, 658–666 (2025).
Munz, L., Mosimann, M., Kauzlaric, M., Martius, O. & Zischg, A. P. Storylines of extreme precipitation events and flood impacts in alpine and pre-alpine environments under various global warming levels. Sci. Total Environ. 957, 177791 (2024).
Thompson, V. et al. Alternative rainfall storylines for the Western European July 2021 floods from ensemble boosting. Commun. Earth Environ. 6, 427 (2025).
Lenderink, G., Barbero, R., Loriaux, J. M. & Fowler, H. J. Super-Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of extreme hourly convective precipitation and its relation to large-scale atmospheric conditions. J. Clim. 30, 6037–6052 (2017).
Caillaud, C. et al. Northwestern Mediterranean heavy precipitation events in a warmer climate: robust versus uncertain changes with a large convection-permitting model ensemble. Geophys. Res. Lett. 51, e2023GL105143 (2024).
Müller, S. K. et al. The climate change response of alpine-mediterranean heavy precipitation events. Clim. Dyn. 62, 165–186 (2024).
Lenderink, G. et al. A pseudo global warming based system to study how climate change affects high impact rainfall events. Weather Clim. Extrem. 49, 100781 (2025).
Fischer, E. M. & Knutti, R. Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 560–564 (2015).
O’Gorman, P. A. Precipitation extremes under climate change. Curr. Clim. Change Rep. 1, 49–59 (2015).
Doswell, C. A. & Rasmussen, E. N. The effect of neglecting the virtual temperature correction on CAPE calculations. Weather Forecast 9, 625–629 (1994).
Brooks, H. E., Lee, J. W. & Craven, J. P. The spatial distribution of severe thunderstorm and tornado environments from global reanalysis data. Atmos. Res. 67–68, 73–94 (2003).
Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Marchio, M. & Brooks, H. E. Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data. Npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 4, 35 (2021).
Calvo-Sancho, C. et al. Supercell convective environments in Spain based on ERA5: hail and non-hail differences. Weather Clim. Dyn. 3, 1021–1036 (2022).
O’Gorman, P. A. & Schneider, T. The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106, 14773–14777 (2009).
Trenberth, K. Changes in precipitation with climate change. Clim. Res. 47, 123–138 (2011).
Lepore, C., Abernathey, R., Henderson, N., Allen, J. T. & Tippett, M. K. Future global convective environments in CMIP6 models. Earths Fut. 9, e2021EF002277 (2021).
Poujol, B., Prien, A. F., Molina, M. J. & Muller, C. Dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of climate change on organized convection in Alaska. Clim. Dyn. 56, 2569–2593 (2021).
Lenderink, G. & van Meijgaard, E. Linking increases in hourly precipitation extremes to atmospheric temperature and moisture changes. Environ. Res. Lett. 5, 025208 (2010).
Loriaux, J. M., Lenderink, G., De Roode, S. R. & Siebesma, A. P. Understanding convective extreme precipitation scaling using observations and an entraining plume model. J. Atmos. Sci. 70, 3641–3655 (2013).
Prein, A. F. et al. The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 48–52 (2017).
Watterson, I. G. et al. Analysis of CMIP6 atmospheric moisture fluxes and the implications for projections of future change in mean and heavy rainfall. Int. J. Climatol. 41, E1417–E1434 (2021).
Zhang, J., Yang, L., Yu, M. & Chen, X. Response of extreme rainfall to atmospheric warming and wetting: implications for hydrologic designs under a changing climate. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 128, e2022JD038430 (2023).
Gimeno-Sotelo, L., Fernández-Alvarez, J. C., Nieto, R., Vicente-Serrano, S. M. & Gimeno, L. The increasing influence of atmospheric moisture transport on hydrometeorological extremes in the Euromediterranean region with global warming. Commun. Earth Environ. 5, 604 (2024).
Derbyshire, S. H. et al. Sensitivity of moist convection to environmental humidity. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 130, 3055–3079 (2004).
de Rooy, W. C. et al. Entrainment and detrainment in cumulus convection: an overview. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 139, 1–19 (2013).
Del Genio, A. D. Representing the sensitivity of convective cloud systems to tropospheric humidity in general circulation models. Surv. Geophys. 33, 637–656 (2012).
Lutsko, N. J. & Cronin, T. W. Increase in precipitation efficiency with surface warming in radiative-convective equilibrium. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 10, 2992–3010 (2018).
Pendergrass, A. G. Changing degree of convective organization as a mechanism for dynamic changes in extreme precipitation. Curr. Clim. Change Rep. 6, 47–54 (2020).
Semie, A. G. & Bony, S. Relationship between precipitation extremes and convective organization inferred from satellite observations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2019GL086927 (2020).
Min, S.-K., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W. & Hegerl, G. C. Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes. Nature 470, 378–381 (2011).
Findell, K. L. et al. Rising temperatures increase importance of oceanic evaporation as a source for continental precipitation. J. Clim. 32, 7713–7726 (2019).
Fernández-Alvarez, J. C. et al. Projected changes in atmospheric moisture transport contributions associated with climate warming in the North Atlantic. Nat. Commun. 14, 6476 (2023).
Gimeno-Sotelo, L. et al. Projected changes in extreme daily precipitation linked to changes in precipitable water and vertical velocity in CMIP6 models. Atmos. Res. 304, 107413 (2024).
Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., Rasmussen, R. M. & Parsons, D. B. The changing character of precipitation. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 84, 1205–1218 (2003).
Nie, J., Sobel, A. H., Shaevitz, D. A. & Wang, S. Dynamic amplification of extreme precipitation sensitivity. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 115, 9467–9472 (2018).
Prein, A. F. et al. Increased rainfall volume from future convective storms in the US. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 880–884 (2017).
Doswell, C. A., Brooks, H. E. & Maddox, R. A. Flash flood forecasting: an ingredients-based methodology. Weather Forecast 11, 560–581 (1996).
Schumacher, R. S. & Johnson, R. H. Organization and environmental properties of extreme-rain-producing mesoscale convective systems. Mon. Weather Rev. 133, 961–976 (2005).
Westra, S. et al. Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall. Rev. Geophys. 52, 522–555 (2014).
Mahoney, K., Alexander, M. A., Thompson, G., Barsugli, J. J. & Scott, J. D. Changes in hail and flood risk in high-resolution simulations over Colorado’s mountains. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 125–131 (2012).
Trapp, R. J., Hoogewind, K. A. & Lasher-Trapp, S. Future changes in hail occurrence in the United States determined through convection-permitting dynamical downscaling. J. Clim. 32, 5493–5509 (2019).
Prein, A. F. et al. Simulating North American mesoscale convective systems with a convection-permitting climate model. Clim. Dyn. 55, 95–110 (2020).
Singh, M. S. & O’Gorman, P. A. Influence of entrainment on the thermal stratification in simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 4398–4403 (2013).
Prein, A. F. & Heymsfield, A. J. Increased melting level height impacts surface precipitation phase and intensity. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 771–776 (2020).
Milbrandt, J. A. & Yau, M. K. A multimoment bulk microphysics parameterization. Part I: analysis of the role of the spectral shape parameter. J. Atmos. Sci. 62, 3051–3064 (2005).
Morrison, H., Thompson, G. & Tatarskii, V. Impact of cloud microphysics on the development of trailing stratiform precipitation in a simulated squall line: comparison of one- and two-moment schemes. Mon. Weather Rev. 137, 991–1007 (2009).
Singleton, A. & Toumi, R. Super-Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of rainfall in a model squall line. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 139, 334–339 (2013).
Muller, C. & Takayabu, Y. Response of precipitation extremes to warming: what have we learned from theory and idealized cloud-resolving simulations, and what remains to be learned? Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 035001 (2020).
Doswell, C. A. Severe convective storms in the European societal context. Atmos. Res. 158–159, 210–215 (2015).
Zhou, S., Yu, B. & Zhang, Y. Global concurrent climate extremes exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. Sci. Adv. 9, eabo1638 (2023).
O’Neill, B. C. et al. The scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3461–3482 (2016).
Beguería, S., Azorín Molina, C. & Vicente Serrano, S. M. Ground records and spatial fields of the 2024/10/29 extreme precipitation event in Valencia, Spain [Dataset]. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (España) https://doi.org/10.20350/digitalCSIC/16716 (2024).
Hersbach, H. et al. The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 146, 1999–2049 (2020).
Skamarock, W. C. et al. A description of the advanced research WRF version 4. NCAR tech. note ncar/tn-556+ str, 145 (2019).
Hong, S.-Y. Hongandlim-JKMS-2006. J. Korean Meteorol. Soc. 42, 129–151 (2006).
Hong, S.-Y., Noh, Y. & Dudhia, J. A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes. Mon. Weather Rev. 134, 2318–2341 (2006).
Dudhia, J. Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model. J. Atmospheric Sci. 46, 3077–3107 (1989).
Mlawer, E. J., Taubman, S. J., Brown, P. D., Iacono, M. J. & Clough, S. A. Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 102, 16663–16682 (1997).
Insua-Costa, D. et al. Extraordinary 2021 snowstorm in Spain reveals critical threshold response to anthropogenic climate change. Commun. Earth Environ. 5, 339 (2024).
Schär, C., Frei, C., Lüthi, D. & Davies, H. C. Surrogate climate-change scenarios for regional climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 669–672 (1996).
Sato, T., Kimura, F. & Kitoh, A. Projection of global warming onto regional precipitation over Mongolia using a regional climate model. J. Hydrol. 333, 144–154 (2007).
Brogli, R., Heim, C., Mensch, J., Sørland, S. L. & Schär, C. The pseudo-global-warming (PGW) approach: methodology, software package PGW4ERA5 v1.1, validation, and sensitivity analyses. Geosci. Model Dev. 16, 907–926 (2023).
Riahi, K. et al. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: an overview. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 153–168 (2017).
Prieto Calvo, Á. T., López Pérez, J. M., Rodríguez Marcos, F. J., Rey Vidaurrázaga, J. & Rallo del Olmo, M. J. PLAN NACIONAL DE PREDICCIÓN Y VIGILANCIA DE FENÓMENOS METEOROLÓGICOS ADVERSOS. METEOALERTA. (2025).
Technologies, V. & A. S. Geoscience community analysis toolkit: WRF-Python. https://doi.org/10.5065/D6W094P1 (2025).
Guan, B. & Waliser, D. E. Detection of atmospheric rivers: Evaluation and application of an algorithm for global studies. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 120, 12514–12535 (2015).
Nash, D., Carvalho, L. M. V., Rutz, J. J. & Jones, C. Influence of the freezing level on atmospheric rivers in High Mountain Asia: WRF case studies of orographic precipitation extremes. Clim. Dyn. 62, 589–607 (2024).
Kukulies, J., Prein, A. F. & Morrison, H. Simulating precipitation efficiency across the deep convective gray zone. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 129, e2024JD041924 (2024).
Kain, J. S. et al. Some practical considerations regarding horizontal resolution in the first generation of operational convection-allowing NWP. Weather Forecast 23, 931–952 (2008).
Mann, H. B. & Whitney, D. R. On a test of whether one of two random variables is stochastically larger than the other. Ann. Math. Stat. 18, 50–60 (1947).
Shepherd, T. G. et al. Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change. Clim. Change 151, 555–571 (2018).
Shepherd, T. G. Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information. Proc. R. Soc. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci. 475, 20190013 (2019).
Trapp, R. J., Woods, M. J., Lasher-Trapp, S. G. & Grover, M. A. Alternative implementations of the “pseudo-global-warming” methodology for event-based simulations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 126, e2021JD035017 (2021).
Prein, A. F. et al. A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: demonstrations, prospects, and challenges. Rev. Geophys. 53, 323–361 (2015).
Luu, L. N., Vautard, R., Yiou, P. & Soubeyroux, J.-M. Evaluation of convection-permitting extreme precipitation simulations for the south of France. Earth Syst. Dyn. 13, 687–702 (2022).
Weisman, M. L. et al. The mesoscale predictability experiment (MPEX). Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 96, 2127–2149 (2015).
Matte, D. et al. On the potentials and limitations of attributing a small-scale climate event. Geophys. Res. Lett. 49, e2022GL099481 (2022).
