Shares dropped after Citrini Research published a thought experiment, but the Kobeissi Letter argues the outlook may be too pessimistic.
Shares of major credit card companies fell on Monday, Feb. 23, after a thought experiment report from Citrini Research raised concerns about how artificial intelligence (AI) could change the payments industry – however, a separate note from The Kobeissi Letter pushed back, saying the disruption risks are overstated.
According to market data shared by Bearly AI in a post on X, Visa dropped about 4.4%, Mastercard fell 6.3%, American Express slid 7.9%, and Capital One declined roughly 8% on Feb. 23 after Citrini’s note was published on Feb. 22.
Notably, by Tuesday afternoon, shares were mostly steady or slightly higher. Visa was around $306, flat on the day, while Mastercard traded near $497, up about 0.5%. American Express was also little changed at $321, and Capital One rose about 4% to around $197.
The situation underscores how quickly viral narratives can move markets and how sensitive both stocks and crypto are to FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt). It also shows investors are still unsure how much AI will disrupt the industry.
AI Agent Payments
Citrini Research described a scenario in which AI programs make purchases on their own and seek the cheapest way to send money. In that case, stablecoins could replace credit cards for some transactions.
“What follows is a scenario, not a prediction,” the note emphasized. “This isn’t bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. The sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that’s been relatively underexplored.”
Meanwhile, in a separate note published last night, The Kobeissi Letter said the negative view assumes demand will not change. It argued that when technology makes things cheaper, people usually spend more. Lower-cost AI services could give consumers more buying power and help new businesses start.
“The doomsday scenario went viral because it captured something visceral,” The Kobeissi Letter note reads. “It framed AI not as a productivity tool, but as a macroeconomic destabilizer capable of triggering a negative feedback loop: layoffs lead to weaker consumption, weaker consumption leads to more automation, and automation accelerates layoffs.”
The memo said AI could also have a positive impact. While some companies may face pressure, lower costs could improve productivity and support economic growth over time. “AI amplifies outcomes. It can amplify fragility if institutions fail to adapt, and it can also amplify prosperity if productivity outpaces disruption,” the note reads.
The back-and-forth comes amid declines in some software and tech stocks following major AI announcements. For instance, shares of IBM plummeted about 13% on Monday, the stock’s steepest drop in more than 25 years.
