Back in 2010, California created something many good government advocates had encouraged and many political incumbents feared: a nonpartisan redistricting commission. The people appointed to the panel were charged with drawing political maps in a way that did not favor one party over the other, while still taking into account California’s complicated demographics and geography.
Then, last year, partisan redistricting wars ignited across the country. After Texas legislators redrew their state’s congressional districts to favor Republicans, Gov. Gavin Newsom pushed for voters to approve a plan that would allow California Democrats to do the same. They did, by a wide margin.
As a result, there are just four competitive congressional districts in the state and just four seats considered safe for Republicans. The rest of the state’s 52 members of Congress are all but certain to be Democrats.
With California primary voters headed to the polls on Tuesday, here is a look at some of the more dramatic changes to the state’s congressional map.
Congressional District 1, the rugged inland area in the far northern reaches of California, has long been a conservative stronghold. The rural area is so different from the rest of California that local leaders have repeatedly floated the idea of seceding from the state. This district used to include 10 rural counties and was solidly Republican. Now, it resembles a jagged letter L with a tail, taking in parts of Sonoma County, known for its pinot noir and liberalism. Democrats are even more likely to win the race after Doug LaMalfa, the Republican who represented the district for more than a decade, died this year.
Before the recent changes, California’s Third Congressional District might have been the longest in the country, stretching some 450 miles down the eastern edge of the state. It included the rugged northern Sierra Nevada and went south to Death Valley. Now, the district resembles the head of an elephant, taking in the California side of Lake Tahoe and including much of northern Sacramento County. The new district is so unfavorable to Republicans that Representative Kevin Kiley, the Republican who represented the district, decided to run in the Sixth District instead. Days later, Mr. Kiley said he would leave the party and run as an independent, while he still caucuses with Republicans.
In 2024, District 9 was one of just 13 in the country that elected a Democrat to the House while simultaneously picking Donald J. Trump for president. In other words, it was a true battleground district. The new lines created one of the most significant shifts on the map, redrawing the district to take out the more Republican-leaning voters in the Central Valley and replacing them with more Bay Area commuters, giving the Democrats a registration advantage of 13 percentage points.
One of the most interesting aspects of the state’s redistricting might be what did not change. Democrats have considered David Valadao, the Republican incumbent in the 22nd District, a top target for at least a decade, as they do this year. The former district resembled a Q, centering on the southern end of the Central Valley. Now, it stretches farther north, into Fresno, but is more narrow. Still, the district remains heavily Hispanic and roughly evenly split between Democrats, Republicans and independents. It is the only race considered a true tossup in California.
The new lines shoved two Republican incumbents into one Southern California district, the 40th. Ken Calvert is the longest serving Republican congressman from California, and Young Kim has been widely regarded as a fresh-faced Republican who can win over the diverse demographic groups in Orange County. The district remains one of just a handful of solidly Republican districts in the state — and the only one in Southern California. But the change means that the party will lose a powerful member either way. Both representatives are running in the open primary and are expected to advance to the general election in November.
Darrell Issa has represented the San Diego area in Congress for more than two decades. But he has retired twice — first in 2018 when he feared a Democratic wave and then, after being re-elected in 2020, again this year after Democrats shifted his district to take out several wealthy cities in Orange County.
The new 48th District draws in parts of Palm Springs, with a vibrant gay community, and the Coachella Valley, a desert area dominated by blue collar and Latino voters. Mr. Issa briefly considered running in a safely red Texas district before declaring late last year, “I’m not giving up on California.” But a few months later, he announced he would not run in the state. Now, the crowded race includes three Democrats and one Republican. The top two vote-getters in the open primary will advance to the November election. While Democrats slightly outnumber Republicans, a win is far from certain; the district is expected to be competitive through the fall.
