Key Points
Grail‘s (NASDAQ: GRAL) stock closed at a record high of $116.06 in January. That marked a 732% gain from its $13.95 opening price following its spin-off from Illumina (NASDAQ: ILMN) in June 2024. But as of this writing, it trades at about $68.
High expectations for Grail’s Galleri blood test, which aims to detect signals from dozens of cancers before any symptoms appear, initially drove its stock higher. But its stock plummeted in February after its largest NHS England trial for Galleri failed to meet its primary endpoint. Does that pullback represent a buying opportunity for investors who can tune out the near-term noise?
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Grail is still growing without the FDA’s approval
The FDA hasn’t approved Galleri yet, but Grail still sells it on a cash-only basis (at $749 to $949 per test) to affluent customers, some employers, hospital pilots, and telehealth programs. That demand was strong enough to boost its revenue from $93 million in 2023 to $147 million in 2025. It also narrowed its net loss from $1.47 billion to $408 million during that period.
That growth trajectory was impressive, but the bulls expected its growth to accelerate as an FDA approval cleared the way for private insurance and Medicare plans to cover its tests. The NHS trial, which included roughly 142,000 people aged 50 to 77, was considered a crucial stepping stone toward that approval. It aimed to demonstrate that people who used Galleri had fewer late-stage cancers (Stage III and IV) than those who didn’t, but it didn’t achieve a statistically significant reduction in those cancers.
That setback indicated it could take years for Galleri to reach more patients. But the trial wasn’t a total failure, since Galleri users still had fewer Stage IV cancers detected, and it made earlier (Stage I and II) detections in some of the deadliest cancers.
Grail is still selling plenty of tests (over 56,000 in the first quarter) without the FDA’s approval, and it recently integrated its orders into Epic’s Aura network, which connects its electronic health record (EHR) users to specialty labs, imaging device facilities, and medical device makers. It also plans to report its findings from its other trials and studies later this year.
Should you invest in Grail after its pullback?
For the full year, Grail expects its revenue to rise 22%-32%. Analysts expect its revenue to grow 22% in 2026, 25% in 2027, and 27% in 2028. It isn’t a bargain at 15 times this year’s sales, but it also doesn’t seem overvalued — especially if Galleri eventually gets a full FDA approval.
Grail is still a speculative stock, but I think it’s worth nibbling on at these levels. It’s already generating significant revenue from direct sales and has a massive total addressable market.
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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Grail and Illumina. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
