Millions of homes are at risk from climate-related subsidence, according to an analysis by the British Geological Survey (BGS).
As hotter, drier summers driven by global heating become more frequent, the ground under houses can shrink and drag down a property’s foundations. The most vulnerable areas include London, Essex, Kent and a tranche of land from Oxford up to the Wash on England’s east coast, according to scientists, who say mitigation measures will be needed.
Anna Harrison, a scientist at the BGS, said: “By combining geotechnical information about volume change potential with data about projected rainfall and temperature scenarios for the coming century, we have been able to identify the areas of Great Britain most likely to become susceptible to shrink-swell subsidence.
Most are in the London area and that’s also where you’re going to see bigger changes in rainfall and temperature. It’s a double whammy.”
London also has a higher density of buildings. Harrison added: “These properties might have foundations that currently can withstand the changes in moisture, but you might find in future there’s going to be more movement. It’s probably going to get worse.”
Subsidence can substantially reduce a property’s value and lenders will often refuse to offer mortgages until it has been resolved. Signs include diagonal cracks around window and door frames, as well as sloping floors. It can require engineering work to stabilise land or underpin a property. In some cases, utility pipes need to be replaced and trees and vegetation removed.
In 2025, the UK experienced the warmest spring on record and the driest in more than 50 years. There were £153m of subsidence-related insurance claims in the first six months of the same year. With climate crisis projections indicating that hotter, drier conditions are likely to become increasingly frequent over the coming century, the number of properties susceptible to subsidence-related shrink-swell is on the rise.
The GeoClimate dataset forecasts that, by 2070, about 500,000 properties could be affected under a low emissions scenario aligned to the Paris climate agreement. This rises to more than 1.8m properties under a medium scenario, closest to current global emissions trajectories.
Highly populated parts of London including Camden, Islington and Barnet are most susceptible, as well as Kent in the south-east of England. Under the medium emissions scenario, the number of properties likely to be affected in the capital will exceed 26% by 2070.
Harrison said: “Dry weather and high temperatures are a major factor in the emergence of shrink-swell subsidence. Looking ahead, these increases in hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters are projected to continue.”
