DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  The presidents of DR Congo and Rwanda signed a peace agreement Thursday at a Washington summit hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump. The Rwanda-backed M23 rebels are not part of the deal, though they have previously participated in Qatari-mediated talks with Kinshasa. This new accord comes amid fresh fighting as the M23 continue their advance in the eastern DRC and hostilities risk spilling into neighbouring Burundi. Crisis Group expert Richard Moncrieff says the deal could put pressure on Congolese and Rwandan leaders to tamp down the violence, but absent a working ceasefire and more comprehensive peace talks, the fighting will continue to claim lives and destabilise the region.
HAITI  Criminal gangs launched an attack on Pont-Sondé, in Haiti’s Artibonite department, killing nearly a dozen, including children, and forcing hundreds to flee. State forces said gangs now control around 50 per cent of Artibonite. Many survivors were displaced to the coastal town of Saint-Marc, where they called on the government to take more robust action against the gangs, as Haitian police and the UN-authorised international security mission are concentrated in the capital Port-au-Prince. One of the gangs is Gran Grif, which massacred more than 70 people in the same town in 2024. Crisis Group expert Diego Da Rin says the new assault shows this criminal group’s determination to seize a major road traversing the area. State forces, local self-defence groups and the foreign security mission are struggling to stop the gangs’ advance.
RUSSIA–UKRAINE  Russian President Vladimir Putin doubled down on the threats he has hurled at Europe, saying on Thursday that while the Kremlin does not want war with Europe, it is ready should Europe initiate one. He also declared that Russia would take over Ukraine’s Donbas region by military force if Ukraine refuses to cede it. Russia currently controls about 80 per cent of the Donbas. Moscow claimed to have captured the strategic city of Pokrovsk in the region earlier this week, though Kyiv denied it. Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim says that after a flurry of diplomacy spearheaded by U.S. envoy Stephen Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kusher, peace negotiations remain deadlocked.

LEBANON  Israel struck Beirut’s southern suburb of Haret Hreik Sunday, killing Hizbollah’s chief of staff, Haytham Ali Tabatabai, in its first attack on the Lebanese capital in months. The strike comes amid intensified Israeli air raids on targets in southern Lebanon that have killed dozens, though a ceasefire has been in place for a year. Crisis Group expert David Wood says Hizbollah is now facing its most serious crisis since its formation. Its current strategy – limiting retaliation to avoid triggering a major Israeli escalation while trying to preserve the remains of its military wing – may buy it time in staving off disarmament. Yet Israel seems set to continue bombing Lebanon until Hizbollah gives up its weapons, which severely complicates diplomatic efforts to reach a durable settlement.
SUDAN  The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Monday declared a three-month unilateral ceasefire, days after U.S. President Donald Trump, upon a request from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, pledged to help end Sudan’s war. But the RSF continues to step up its offensives in the strategic central region of Kordofan, causing further displacement of civilians and compounding one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Evidence continues to mount of RSF atrocities after the capture of North Darfur’s capital, El Fasher, in late October. The RSF’s move also came a day after the Sudanese army rejected a ceasefire proposal from the U.S., the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the group known as the Quad, calling it biased toward the RSF because of the UAE’s continued support for the paramilitaries. Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael says urgent high-level U.S. and Saudi engagement could make a difference, but only sustained, coordinated pressure offers a chance for a peace effort to stick. To date, there is no evidence that Trump is directly involved, though his envoy for Africa, Massad Boulos, continues discussions with both the Sudanese belligerents and the Quad members.
WEST BANK  While the Gaza ceasefire has largely held despite repeated violations, Israeli settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank have soared. The UN recorded over 260 attacks in October alone, the highest monthly total in two decades. Despite some condemnations from Israeli leaders, attacks continue almost daily. Meanwhile, Israel has launched a fresh military operation in the Tubas governorate, with other raids continuing. Crisis Group expert Mairav Zonszein says efforts to consolidate the Gaza truce could be undermined by the escalating violence in the West Bank, especially given many Israeli leaders’ explicit agenda of preventing a Palestinian state. External actors, particularly the U.S., must press for accountability and halt Israeli measures that entrench de facto annexation.

UNITED NATIONS  The UN Security Council voted Monday to approve a U.S.-sponsored resolution endorsing the Trump administration’s plan for ending the war between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip. The resolution passed with 13 votes, though China and Russia abstained. It gives the Council’s imprimatur to U.S. proposals to establish a Board of Peace to administer Gaza and an international force to maintain security in the enclave. It also says “the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood” if the Palestinian Authority (PA), which it foresees taking control of Gaza from Hamas, reforms and reconstruction in the strip proceeds apace. The PA and Israel welcomed the resolution; Hamas rejected it, saying the Board of Peace imposes foreign guardianship on the Palestinians. It also said the international force’s mandate to disarm Palestinian groups in effect makes that body a tool of continued Israeli occupation. Crisis Group expert Daniel Forti says passing the resolution may have been the easy part. It will be much harder to assemble the envisioned international force and and sustain a political process that Palestinians in Gaza, as well as Israel, the PA and their international partners, see as credible.
U.S.–VENEZUELA  The Trump administration sent mixed signals this week regarding the U.S. naval buildup in the Caribbean Sea near Venezuela. On one hand, the State Department announced its intent to designate Cartel de los Soles, which it says is a narcotics ring headed by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, as a foreign terrorist organisation, effective on 24 November. The White House has pointedly declined to rule out military action to remove what it calls the “illegitimate” Maduro government. On the other hand, President Donald Trump said he was open to negotiations with Caracas to “take care of Venezuela”, which he claims is a major source of illicit drugs coming into the United States. Maduro also indicated willingness to talk. Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson says it is encouraging that the two parties may be looking for a diplomatic off-ramp, as U.S. strikes on Venezuela would likely sow chaos in the country. 
U.S.–UKRAINE  Media reports this week said the Trump administration is exerting new pressure on Ukraine to sign a peace deal with Russia, perhaps as soon as the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on 27 November. The agreement would consist of a 28-point plan reportedly drafted by the administration’s all-purpose envoy Steve Witkoff. Among other things, it would require Kyiv to cede Ukrainian territory to the Russian invaders and drastically cut the size of its military. If the reports are accurate, says Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim, it would mean the Trump administration has done what many feared it would do when it entered office in January: try to impose a peace favourable to Moscow without consulting Kyiv or U.S. allies in Europe.

AFGHANISTAN–PAKISTAN  A suicide bombing at an Islamabad court complex Tuesday killed at least twelve people and injured over 30. Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said the attacks were orchestrated from Afghanistan, at India’s behest, adding that cross-border strikes on Afghanistan “could not be ruled out”. Urging Kabul to “stop supporting terrorism”, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif offered to renew peace talks with the Afghan Taliban Wednesday, a week after negotiations to cement the truce in place after last month’s cross-border clashes collapsed. Kabul has not yet responded. Crisis Group experts Samina Ahmed and Ibraheem Bahiss say Sharif’s offer signals that Islamabad is willing to de-escalate, but more violence could follow if the parties refuse to cooperate.
CAMBODIA–THAILAND  Thailand suspended implementation of a peace agreement with Cambodia Monday after a landmine explosion at the border wounded several Thai soldiers. Cross-border gunfire killed one Cambodian civilian and injured at least three others Wednesday. The agreement, signed last month, aimed to bolster a ceasefire concluded in July, which Thailand has accused Cambodia of repeatedly breaching by laying fresh landmines. The breakdown of the accord risks further fighting. Crisis Group expert Matt Wheeler says Bangkok and Phnom Penh should stop grandstanding and recommit to building confidence and resolving differences through talks. 
U.S.–VENEZUELA  Venezuela announced it is mobilising its armed forces en masse Tuesday after the U.S. said its largest warship had arrived in the U.S. Southern Command’s area of operations, which includes most of Latin America. Washington has framed its military build-up as aimed at halting the flow of drugs into the U.S., having carried out strikes on several boats allegedly transporting narcotics. Caracas, however, believes that the U.S. is intent on ousting President Nicolás Maduro’s government. Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson says U.S.-orchestrated regime change in Venezuela – if it goes ahead – could plunge the country into violent chaos, with ripples extending into neighbouring countries.

IRAQ  Iraqis are set to head to the polls on 11 November for parliamentary elections. The run-up to the ballot has been marred by accusations of widespread vote buying and alarming insecurity. On 15 October, an explosive device killed Safaa al-Mashhadani, a provincial council member and candidate for the Sunni Sovereignty Alliance. Meanwhile, influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose bloc won the most parliamentary seats in the last elections but who later withdrew from politics, has called for a boycott, citing corruption in the political system. Crisis Group expert Lahib Higel says the boycott campaign and related disillusionment may limit turnout. Government formation afterward is likely to be contentious, as the incumbent prime minister, Mohammed Shiaa al-Sudani, is poised to win the most seats but is also likely to face significant pushback from other Shiite politicians intent on denying him a second term.
MEXICO  Protests erupted in Uruapan, Morelia and other cities in Michoacán state after the assassination of Uruapan’s mayor, Carlos Manzo, late Saturday. Manzo had been outspoken about rampant criminal violence in the state and had accused Governor Alfredo Ramírez Bedolla and state police of inaction. Manzo’s killing happened days after a prominent lemon grower was murdered for denouncing cartel extortion. In response, President Claudia Sheinbaum on Tuesday unveiled a new security plan for Michoacán, pledging to deploy more National Guard and federal agents, tighten coordination with state forces and introduce social support measures. Crisis Group expert David Mora says the plan largely mirrors militarised approaches tried in other states, which, on their own, have had limited effect. Persistent violence will likely further fuel public anger.
SUDAN  The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced Sunday that it is massing for a push toward El Obeid, capital of North Kordofan, where it has also stepped up drone attacks. This new initiative follows the RSF’s late October seizure of El Fasher in Darfur, which triggered mass displacement and reports of large-scale atrocities. A UN-backed analysis this week confirmed famine in both El Fasher and Kadugli in South Kordofan. The RSF on Thursday accepted a U.S.-sponsored proposal for a humanitarian ceasefire. The Sudanese army did not reply immediately but had indicated earlier its determination to keep fighting. Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael says El Fasher’s fall is entrenching de facto partition of Sudan and shifting the war’s centre of gravity eastward. External actors, particularly the U.S., should redouble diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire in order to avert a permanent split and an even larger humanitarian catastrophe.

AFGHANISTAN–PAKISTAN  Talks aimed at shoring up the peace on the Afghan-Pakistani frontier, which had come close to breaking down, ended Friday morning with an agreement to extend the ceasefire struck on 19 October. Negotiations aimed at creating a “monitoring and verification mechanism” will resume on 6 November, according to a Turkish foreign ministry statement. Pakistan and Afghanistan traded blows earlier in October, after a militant attack ascribed to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed the lives of several Pakistani military personnel, including senior officers. Pakistan conducted airstrikes in Afghanistan’s Paktika province and its capital Kabul. Afghan Taliban forces retaliated by firing on Pakistani army posts, prompting Pakistan to respond with further strikes in Kandahar and Kabul. With Islamabad accusing the Afghan Taliban of backing continued TTP attacks, Crisis Group expert Samina Ahmed says more deadly violence could still erupt in the coming days.

GAZA  Three weeks after Hamas and Israel agreed to a ceasefire, not all the fire has ceased. Accusing Hamas of attacks that have killed three of its soldiers, Israel has twice “retaliated” with massive bombardments in Gaza. These raids, plus shoot-to-kill policies aimed at anyone straying into the 53 per cent of the enclave still held by Israel, have left over 200 Palestinians dead. Hamas says Israel continues to throttle aid: only 350 truckloads of supplies are entering Gaza each day, not the 600 stipulated by the truce deal. There is more food, but no materials for reconstruction. Without greater outside pressure to move the process forward, says Crisis Group expert Max Rodenbeck, the strip is likely to remain stuck in misery and sporadic violence.

MOROCCO  Civil society groups said some 1,500 Moroccans are facing prosecution in connection with a rash of protests starting in late September to demand greater state investment in health care and education. The demonstrations were organised online by “Gen Z” youth acting independently of opposition parties, trade unions and other established political forces. Most have been peaceful, though three activists have been killed in clashes with police. Some of those arrested are charged only with posting calls on social media for participation in the protests. For the time being, says Crisis Group expert Riccardo Fabiani, the combination of repression and activist fatigue has taken the wind out of the protesters’ sails, but their underlying grievances remain largely unaddressed.

CAMEROON  Police clashed with demonstrators alleging fraud in the 12 October presidential election in several towns, killing a teacher in Garoua Tuesday. Opposition candidate Issa Tchiroma has claimed victory, but the Constitutional Council is set to proclaim incumbent Paul Biya as the winner. Tchiroma and his supporters are planning further protests. On Wednesday, Cameroon’s top court rejected all the petitions contesting the election result despite reports of irregularities and disagreements over vote tallying. Crisis Group expert Arrey E. Ntui says a violent crackdown on protesters risks sparking wider unrest and deepening an unfolding political crisis.

PERU  Interim President José Jerí announced a 30-day state of emergency Tuesday in the capital Lima and the neighbouring port of Callao after weeks of demonstrations against alleged government corruption and organised crime. Clashes with police have killed one protester and injured about 100 more. Jerí’s measure enables the government to deploy the army to the streets and restrict freedom of assembly and other rights. Rather than quell the unrest by force, Crisis Group expert Renata Segura says the government should work with Congress to pass reforms to make state institutions more effective, address the disconnect between citizens and authorities, and end the country’s cyclical crises.

YEMEN  Twenty UN staff were confined to a UN compound in the capital Sanaa following a Houthi incursion Saturday. Twelve of them left the city Wednesday with the remaining eight also free to move again following mediation by Oman, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Crisis Group expert Ahmed Nagi says this latest move by the Houthis is part of their wider crackdown on the UN and international NGOs, which is worsening the humanitarian crisis in a country where millions are reliant on international aid for survival. More than 100 aid workers, including UN and NGO employees, have been arbitrarily detained since June 2023.

AFGHANISTAN–PAKISTAN  Border clashes between Pakistan and the Taliban authorities in Afghanistan intensified this week after reported Pakistani strikes in Kabul and other border areas last week, believed to target Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Islamabad accuses the Afghan Taliban of sheltering the TTP, which conducts attacks in Pakistan. In retaliation, the Taliban struck Pakistani border posts, triggering exchanges along the frontier and a new round of Pakistani strikes, including in Kabul and Kandahar, that reportedly left dozens dead or wounded on both sides, including civilians. On Wednesday, Islamabad and Kabul agreed to a 48-hour ceasefire to allow for talks. Crisis Group experts Ibraheem Bahiss and Samina Ahmed say both sides should seize the moment to de-escalate, while outside powers should throw their weight behind diplomacy. Further military action only risks deepening regional instability.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  At the end of the latest round of talks held under the auspices of Qatar, representatives of the Congolese government and the Rwandan-backed M23 rebels agreed on Tuesday, 14 October, in Doha to set up a joint body for ceasefire monitoring. The mechanism – bringing together the DRC, the M23, and the twelve members of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR), as well as other regional and international observers – will investigate and verify alleged violations of a permanent ceasefire, the principle of which was adopted on 17 July but has since been regularly violated by both sides, as have all previous ceasefires. Crisis Group expert Onesphore Sematumba says the latest agreement is an important diplomatic step but contrasts sharply with realities on the ground, where fighting has continued in North and South Kivu, involving M23, government forces, and allied militias. Sustained commitment to the ceasefire and effective implementation of the monitoring mechanism will be crucial to prevent a return to all-out war.

U.S.–VENEZUELA  President Trump confirmed Wednesday that he had authorised the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela, citing drug trafficking and claims that Venezuela had released prisoners into the United States. The disclosure comes after recent U.S. military strikes in the Caribbean that hit at least six alleged Venezuelan drug-smuggling boats, killing 29 people. President Nicolás Maduro condemned the move, declaring, “No to coups d’état orchestrated by the CIA.” Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson says the U.S. pursuing further military action and regime change risks creating anarchy and fuelling violent struggles for territory among Venezuela’s many armed groups, which have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo.

ECUADOR  Authorities arrested five people on terrorism and attempted murder charges after a crowd of hundreds swarmed President Daniel Noboa’s motorcade in the eastern Cañar province Tuesday. Noboa was not harmed in the attack. Indigenous communities in the country have been holding a strike for the past two weeks in protest of his decision to end fuel subsidies. The country’s largest Indigenous organisation, CONAIE, has rejected the allegations against the detainees, and on Wednesday a judge ordered them released, ruling the arrests illegal. Crisis Group expert Glaeldys González Calanche says Noboa could use the Cañar incident to crack down further on the opposition and Indigenous activists, who have accused his government of arbitrary detentions and other abuses. To defuse tensions, the government should commit to fostering dialogue with opposition groups.

MYANMAR  An army paraglider killed at least 40 people and injured dozens more Monday in a bombing in Chaung U township in Sagaing Region. The paraglider targeted a crowd in an opposition-controlled area that had gathered for a Buddhist celebration as well as a candlelight vigil protesting the ruling junta’s conscription policy and its plans to hold national elections. Crisis Group expert Richard Horsey says it is the latest indiscriminate attack on civilians as the military regime battles to reassert control of the country. Increasingly, the military is using paragliders and drones in these strikes, with Myanmar’s people paying a heavy price.

SYRIA  The Syrian army and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) agreed on a ceasefire Tuesday following overnight clashes in SDF-held Aleppo city that killed a Syrian soldier. Fighting between the army and the SDF has threatened the new government’s efforts to integrate the Kurdish-led administration in Syria’s north east into state institutions, as envisioned by a U.S.-brokered deal in March. The two sides are caught in a cycle of mistrust, says Crisis Group expert Nanar Hawach. External mediation is crucial to prevent further confrontations and keep the integration process on track.

IRAN  The UN Security Council reimposed UN sanctions on Iran last week, using the “snapback” mechanism in the resolution endorsing the 2015 nuclear deal between the Islamic Republic and world powers. The deal’s three European parties – the UK, France and Germany – judged that Tehran has been non-compliant with its commitments under the agreement. Russia and China voted no on snapback (though the mechanism’s design meant that neither could veto it); along with Iran itself, they have declared the restoration of UN sanctions illegitimate. Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez says snapback of international sanctions that had previously been lifted completes the paperwork for burying a deal that had been ailing since the U.S. withdrew in 2018. Now the nuclear crisis has entered a more dangerous and uncertain phase, as Tehran’s program – or what remains of it after Israeli and U.S. strikes in June – will be opaque to outsiders.

ISRAEL-PALESTINE  Meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a 20-point plan for ending the war in Gaza. It calls for a hostage exchange and a halt to fighting, followed by a recovery period with the enclave ruled by an international “board of peace” chaired by Trump himself. Netanyahu welcomed the scheme, saying it meets all Israel’s war aims and spares the Israeli army the need to capture Gaza City – a campaign that has already killed thousands of Palestinians in a few weeks. Arab states back most of the proposal, while many Palestinians feel that if its terms are awful, more war is worse. But for Hamas, says Crisis Group expert Max Rodenbeck, Trump’s plan is a blunt ultimatum: surrender or see Israel erase what is left of Gaza.

U.S.–COLOMBIA  Tensions between Washington and Bogotá, already high, rose further last Friday, when the Trump administration revoked Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s visa to visit the United States. Petro, who was in New York for the UN General Assembly, aroused the White House’s ire with comments he made at a pro-Palestinian rally, in which he called on U.S. soldiers to “disobey the orders” of President Donald Trump. His outspoken criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza is one of several irritants in his government’s relations with Washington. Others include increasing cultivation of coca (the plant used to make cocaine) in Colombia, the U.S. crackdown on immigration and the ideological clash between the two heads of state. In the ensuing days, the U.S. revoked visas for all the members of Petro’s cabinet (some of them said they had “renounced” theirs first). Crisis Group expert Elizabeth Dickinson says both sides are seeking domestic political benefit from making an enemy of the other, despite the risk of damage to bilateral ties. Colombia, facing its deepest security crisis in a decade, only narrowly avoided cuts to U.S. defence cooperation in Washington’s annual drug policy certification process.

BRAZIL  Thousands marched in Rio de Janeiro and other cities Sunday to protest a bill passed by the lower house of congress that would grant amnesty to individuals involved in the attempt to overturn the 2022 presidential election. The bill’s proponents likely intend it to apply to former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to 27 years in prison earlier this month on charges of plotting a coup. The Brazilian senate will probably block the bill, and, if the legislation does go through, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has promised to veto it. But the fact that it has advanced to this stage shows the deep polarisation of Brazilian politics, says Crisis Group expert Renata Segura. With the U.S. actively backing Bolsonaro and his supporters, political violence could return to Brazil as the 2026 presidential contest approaches. 

NORTH KOREA  Speaking to the country’s rubber-stamp legislature Sunday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reaffirmed that Pyongyang’s nuclear status is permanent and non-negotiable, calling the U.S. insistence on denuclearisation “absurd”. He left the door open to new talks with U.S. President Donald Trump, but only if Washington abandons that demand and accepts “peaceful coexistence”. Conversely, Kim flatly rejected reconciliation with Seoul, deriding South Korea as a “colonial vassal state”. He pledged to enshrine in law that the two Koreas are separate countries. Pyongyang had long sought unification but reversed that policy eighteen months ago. Crisis Group expert Chris Green says Kim said nothing new in this speech, but he did state Pyongyang’s positions more forcefully than before. By offering to negotiate with the U.S. but not South Korea, he doubtless hopes to sow division between the two treaty allies.

UNITED NATIONS  Addressing the UN General Assembly Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump lambasted the world organisation for what he said was its failure to support his efforts to stop wars in cases such as the India-Pakistan clash in May. After a more cordial bilateral meeting, Secretary-General António Guterres promised to work with the president on peace and security. Crisis Group President & CEO Comfort Ero, who is in New York for the UN gathering, says there is a sliver of hope that, despite its disdain for multilateralism, the Trump administration will cooperate with the UN on conflict management. One place to start may be the Democratic Republic of Congo, where a peace process co-led by the U.S., Qatar and the African Union is faltering and the UN has thousands of peacekeepers deployed.

CAMBODIA–THAILAND  Thai security forces on 17 September fired tear gas and non-lethal rounds at some 200 Cambodian civilians attempting to remove barbed wire fencing, reportedly injuring 23, in the most serious challenge yet to the ceasefire agreed 28 July to end five days of fighting. The confrontation took place at Ban Nong Ya Kaew, Sa Kaeo province; Cambodia claims the area as Prey Chan, Bantheay Meanchey province. Thailand says Cambodian authorities are using civilians armed with sticks and slingshots to incite unrest in violation of the ceasefire agreement. Crisis Group expert Matt Wheeler says authorities on both sides have a responsibility to prevent provocations that jeopardise the ceasefire and risk a return to hostilities.

GAZA  Israel this week pressed ahead with its military assault on Gaza City, bombing high-rise buildings and demolishing neighbourhoods with explosives. The army has ordered the city’s 800,000 to 1 million Palestinian inhabitants to evacuate; while many are fleeing to overcrowded and deprived areas on the coast and in the south, others lack the means or strength to travel or refuse to leave due to equally dire prospects elsewhere. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says Israel’s strike on Hamas’s Doha offices last week shows that the Netanyahu government is currently not interested in a ceasefire deal, and that its campaign looks set to erase Gaza City entirely. Only far greater pressure – from the U.S., Europe and Arab governments – stands any chance of getting Israel to stop.

U.S.–VENEZUELA  President Trump announced Monday that the U.S. military carried out a second strike against a boat allegedly smuggling drugs from Venezuela in the Caribbean, killing three people. The announcement came less than two weeks after a 2 September strike that killed 11. The administration has not publicly provided evidence that either vessel was operated by a cartel or was carrying narcotics. Crisis Group expert Brian Finucane says both strikes still lack credible legal justification under U.S. and international law. Without Congress stepping in to investigate, oppose further such actions and demand accountability, the Trump administration may be emboldened to widen its campaign of what likely amounts to extrajudicial killings in the Caribbean and beyond.

ISRAEL–QATAR  Israel struck Doha on Tuesday, targeting Hamas political leaders as they reviewed a new U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal for Gaza. Hamas said its top leaders survived, though five members, including the son of senior negotiator Khalil al-Hayya, were killed. Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani denounced the strike as “state terrorism” and said it had “killed any hope” for a deal to free the remaining hostages still held in Gaza. Israeli officials defended the operation as hitting Hamas leadership behind the 7 October attacks. Crisis Group expert Mairav Zonszein says the attack is further evidence that the Israeli government is not acting in good faith to negotiate an end to the war and the release of hostages and casts further doubt on the viability of President Trump’s ceasefire diplomacy.

MALI  After several years of blockades in the north and centre of Mali, JNIM, an al-Qaeda affiliate, announced last week that it was extending its campaign to the west by targeting strategic roads linking Mali with Senegal and Mauritania, which are crucial for the national economy and public revenues. JNIM has since enforced the blockade through attacks on fuel convoys and abductions of drivers. Crisis Group expert Ibrahim Maiga says this shift highlights the geographic expansion of jihadist groups and the fragility of key commercial corridors. While Mali and its neighbours should strengthen cooperation to protect these lifelines and preserve economic and political stability, a purely military approach is unlikely to succeed and could even worsen the crisis.

NEPAL  Youth-led “Gen Z” protests against systemic corruption turned violent this week, leaving over 50 dead, including at least 19 killed by security forces. The unrest, which began Monday and escalated when police forces opening live fire on unarmed protesters, intensified Tuesday as demonstrators attacked politicians’ homes, the prime minister’s office, and set fire to government buildings. The spiralling violence prompted the resignation of Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli. Nepal’s army has since been deployed nationwide to restore order. Following negotiations between army chief Ashok Raj Sigdel, President Ram Chandra Paudel and youth leaders, former Supreme Court Chief Justice Sushila Karki was appointed head of an interim government on 12 September. Crisis Group expert Ashish Pradhan says the Karki-led transitional government’s immediate priorities must be restoring order and the rule of law, conducting credible investigations into the deaths and damage caused during the protests, and outlining a clear timeline for fresh elections to establish a new permanent administration, which will be expected to tackle the corruption and abuse of public funds that sparked the protests.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  During a second meeting of the Joint Oversight Committee in Washington on Wednesday, Rwanda and the DR Congo reaffirmed their commitment to the June 27 peace agreement, while acknowledging that progress has been limited. Kigali and Kinshasa also agreed to establish military and intelligence channels for information exchange. Meanwhile, clashes continued, particularly around the town of Uvira in South Kivu, even as talks between the M23 and the DRC resumed last week in Doha under Qatari mediation. Both sides traded accusations of ceasefire violations and missed an August 18 deadline for a formal agreement. Crisis Group expert Onesphore Sematumba says the parties’ continued engagement is encouraging, but real, time-bound progress is needed to prevent the effort from unravelling. Otherwise, there is a risk of a return to full-scale war, which would further worsen an already disastrous situation for populations trapped in a sprawling conflict.

HAITI  The U.S. and Panama last week circulated a draft resolution at the UN Security Council that proposes to transform the Kenya-led Multinational Security Support Mission (MSS), deployed in Haiti to combat spiralling gang violence but hampered by understaffing and underfunding, into a new “Gang Suppression Force”. The new force would consist of 5,500 uniformed personnel and 50 civilian staff, backstopped by a new UN support office in Port-au-Prince for logistics. It would also carry a broader mandate than the MSS, notably the freedom to conduct counter-gang operations independent from the Haitian police. Crisis Group expert Daniel Forti says Washington’s heightened focus on Haiti is welcome, but other Council members will ask tough questions about the proposed mission’s leadership, funding, troop contributions, and coordination mechanisms.

UKRAINE  Leaders of the “coalition of the willing”, an ad-hoc group of 35 primarily European backers of Kyiv, met in Paris Thursday to work out security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire with Russia. President Emmanuel Macron said 26 countries had committed support for a ‘reassurance force’ to deploy once a ceasefire is agreed and that the shape of U.S. involvement would be finalised in the coming days. Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim says the pledges mark an important signal of continued Western support for Ukraine, though it is difficult to imagine Washington making a firm commitment given President Trump’s shifting stance toward Kyiv. The plan also remains contingent on a ceasefire, which Moscow shows little sign of accepting as it presses battlefield advances and strikes against Ukrainian cities.

AFGHANISTAN–PAKISTAN  Pakistan is set to deport some 1.3 million Afghan refugees when a deadline for “voluntary repatriation” lapses on 1 September. Afghanistan’s economy is under great strain with both Iran and Pakistan having already sent back large numbers of migrants to a country suffering prolonged drought. Malnutrition has risen sharply, with an estimated 9.5 million people facing severe food insecurity. Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss says these conditions, coupled with significant cuts to international aid, have left Afghan authorities and humanitarian agencies ill equipped to manage a new influx of returnees. To mitigate the consequences, Pakistan should relax its deportation policy, maybe including by putting monthly caps on the number of returns, and institute a humanitarian pause during the winter months.
COLOMBIA  Dissident factions of the former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) launched a wave of attacks across the country, leaving at least nineteen dead and nearly 100 wounded. On 21 August, a group called Estado Mayor Central detonated a truckload of explosives outside an air force base in a busy neighbourhood of Cali, Colombia’s third largest city, killing six civilians. The same day, a separate faction, the 36th Front, downed a helicopter, killing thirteen soldiers in Amalfi, Antioquia. The aircraft was sent to evacuate other wounded soldiers who had come under fire while eradicating coca, the raw material for cocaine. These attacks are intended to terrorise civilians, while raising the political cost of military operations against criminal groups, says Crisis Group expert Elizabeth Dickinson. They are likely to increase in the coming nine months before the presidential election.
ISRAEL–SYRIA  Israel this week carried out a series of air and ground operations in Syria. On Monday, Damascus said Israeli troops seized strategic positions near Mount Hermon, in what Israel described as routine manoeuvres. On Tuesday, Israel struck sites near Kisweh, outside Damascus, after Syrian forces reportedly discovered Israeli surveillance equipment, killing at least six Syrian soldiers. According to Syrian sources, Israel the next day conducted another round of airstrikes in the same area, then landed paratroopers who remained there for several hours. These operations come as Israel and Syria remain engaged in U.S.-mediated talks about a possible security arrangement. Crisis Group expert Heiko Wimmen says the Israeli actions are likely to complicate already difficult negotiations and risk deepening Syria’s instability, an outcome that would run contrary to Israel’s own security interests.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  Qatari mediators said the Congolese government and M23 rebels “are engaging very positively” with peace talks, despite missing a Monday deadline for signing a final agreement. The two sides, which have been fighting bitterly in the eastern part of the country since the Rwanda-backed rebellion resurged in late 2021, concluded a tenuous truce in July. Each has subsequently accused the other of violating the ceasefire. Crisis Group expert Onesphore Sematumba says both sides wish to make territorial gains before the negotiations in Qatar’s capital Doha proceed in earnest. Both are looking for leverage on issues where they have deep differences, such as who will exercise political authority in the east and how many prisoners each side will release. The dialogue risks getting bogged down in these disagreements.

GAZA  Hamas approved a partial, 60-day ceasefire plan put forward by Egyptian and Qatari mediators this week. Israeli officials appeared dismissive of the proposal but are expected to give a final answer soon. A nationwide strike in Israel on Sunday demanded that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agree to a hostage deal immediately. Meanwhile, the Israeli army has launched fresh assaults as part of a plan to capture Gaza City and expel hundreds of thousands of Palestinians southward. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says the new offensive shows that the Israeli government remains unmoved by global outrage over the war, which so far has brought little action by other states. Foreign capitals, chiefly Washington, must ramp up pressure on Israel to avert further calamity.

U.S.–VENEZUELA Three U.S. warships steamed toward Venezuela’s Caribbean coast this week as part of what the White House says is an effort “to stop drugs from flooding into our country and to bring those responsible to justice”. The Trump administration has put a $50 million bounty on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, whom it accuses of heading a “narco-terror state” tied to cartels trafficking cocaine. Maduro, calling these allegations “outlandish”, said he would activate a popular militia dating from the tenure of his predecessor Hugo Chávez to contend with the U.S. “threats”. Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson says Washington’s show of force may be intended to weaken Maduro and hasten his exit, rather than to signal a pending military operation. But it has provoked an intensification of state repression in Venezuela, while restoring a degree of support for Maduro both at home and among other Latin American governments.

BRAZIL  The Supreme Court ordered former President Jair Bolsonaro placed under house arrest Monday, saying he disregarded a previous injunction not to comment publicly about his trial on charges of attempting to overturn the 2022 election result. Polls show 53 per cent of Brazilians backing the measure but 47 per cent opposing it. Bolsonaro supporters in the Brazilian legislature vowed to obstruct its business unless it passes an amnesty bill that would allow the former president, who is now barred from running again in 2026, to throw his hat in the ring. Meanwhile, the Trump administration intervened on Bolsonaro’s behalf, calling him the victim of a “witch hunt” and slapping a 50 per cent tariff on Brazilian imports. Crisis Group expert Renata Segura says Washington’s meddling has incensed many Brazilians, who resent what they see as a violation of their country’s sovereignty, and energised Bolsonaro backers, who regard U.S. pressure as the only way to save the ex-president’s political future. Neighbouring capitals are watching closely as the diplomatic crisis unfolds, as it could be a harbinger of trends in U.S.-Latin American relations.

ISRAEL-PALESTINE  The Israeli security cabinet decided this week to take control of Gaza City, against the recommendations of the Israeli military’s chief of staff, who warned the move could kill hostages, cause high casualties among soldiers and deepen the humanitarian disaster for Palestinians. As ceasefire talks mediated by the U.S., Egypt and Qatar appear to have collapsed once more, Crisis Group expert Mairav Zonszein says the decision is a tacit admission that Israel’s campaign since March, when it broke the last truce, has failed. The stated objectives of the new operation include disarming Hamas and retrieving the hostages, goals Israel has not achieved in nearly two years. There is no reason to think more military action will produce different results. It will lead to still further destruction of Palestinian life in the enclave and, unless Israel is stopped, it could lead to expulsion of some or all of the Palestinian population.

MOZAMBIQUE  A UN report Tuesday said some 60,000 people have been uprooted by a string of Islamist insurgent attacks on villages in the northern province of Cabo Delgado. Crisis Group expert Nicolas Delaunay says the militants seem to be back on the front foot after suffering territorial losses and casualties in last year’s campaign by the Mozambican army, supported by Rwandan troops, to retake their coastal strongholds. Over the last few months, they have staged several major raids, killing both Mozambican and Rwandan soldiers. They have also attacked civilians, kidnapping minors whom they compel to join their ranks. The insurgents appear to be attempting to stretch their adversaries thin by striking targets across Cabo Delgado and even outside the province.

BURKINA FASO  A wave of jihadist attacks hit the country this week, with serious incidents nearly every day. The largest occurred on Monday, when militants tied to al-Qaeda assailed a military base and other targets in the Centre-Nord and Sahel regions, killing more than 100 soldiers. Insurgents also struck in the Boucle du Mouhoun, East, North and Centre-East regions. Since early July, the al-Qaeda affiliate has raided Fada N’Gourma in the East region several times, the first assaults on this major city since the jihadist insurgency in Burkina Faso began in 2016. Crisis Group expert Mathieu Pellerin says the government appears unable to curb the threat. It has ordered a mass mobilisation of soldiers and paramilitaries, and acquired significant new weaponry, but the insurgency continues to gain ground.

CAMBODIA–THAILAND  After five days of fighting along the border, in which at least 43 people were killed and some 300,000 displaced, Cambodian and Thai leaders met Monday and agreed to a ceasefire brokered by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to go into effect at midnight. Envoys from China and the U.S. were present at the talks. Bangkok has alleged multiple Cambodian truce violations, which Phnom Penh has denied. Crisis Group expert Matt Wheeler says there appears to be no plan yet for a sustained, independent monitoring mechanism; a 2011 scheme to post Indonesian military observers on the frontier never came to fruition. A meeting of the General Border Committee, including defence ministers from both countries, is scheduled for 4 August; at Thailand’s request, the venue was moved from Cambodia to Malaysia, with the agenda extended from one day to three.

ISRAEL-PALESTINE  World officials attended a high-level UN conference this week in an attempt to revive a process aimed at a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a month after a similar summit was postponed. France, the UK and Canada announced plans to recognise the State of Palestine at the UN General Assembly in September, if the Palestinian Authority (PA) in Ramallah makes reforms and if Israel takes no steps in the interim to ease Palestinian suffering in Gaza. Other countries are likely to follow suit. Israel, however, denounced the moves as a “reward for Hamas”, while the U.S. responded by imposing travel bans on PA officials. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says the momentum behind recognition reflects growing frustration with Israel’s policies, but it will have no meaningful impact for Palestinians unless it is tied to much stronger actions to stop the Gaza war and block West Bank annexation.

SUDAN  Fighting between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces escalated this week in the central Kordofan region, killing numerous civilians. Violence also continues in North Darfur, deepening a hunger crisis already affecting millions in conflict zones. Now well into its third year, Sudan’s war shows no sign of slowing, highlighting the urgent need for coordinated diplomacy. A glimmer of hope is that the United States is planning to host a senior-level meeting of representatives from Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Washington, aiming to revive peace talks between the main belligerents. Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael says the U.S. should press these countries to use their leverage with the warring parties to end the fighting and support a political resolution.

SYRIA  Druze and Bedouin fighters skirmished periodically this week in the southern province of Suweida, despite a formal ceasefire between local Druze factions and the government in Damascus. Finding a durable solution has been difficult, as prominent Druze figures have rejected the idea that government forces take over security provision in the province. Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation has become dire due to lack of safe passage for supplies. Crisis Group expert Nanar Hawach says the dispute in Suweida has national implications, as it could jeopardise the new government’s efforts to bring all Syrian territory under central rule. The violence in the south has reinforced perceptions among the country’s ethnic and religious minorities that they need to remain under arms (and even have foreign backing) in order to have a stake in post-Assad Syria.

U.S.–PHILIPPINES  Presidents Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. and Donald Trump met in the White House Tuesday, discussing trade and Asia Pacific security issues. Marcos reportedly agreed to a new tariff arrangement. On the other front, Trump stressed the importance of building a “joint ammunition manufacturing and storage facility” at Subic Bay, the site of an old U.S. base, closed in 1992, where the U.S. Marine Corps leased warehouse space in March. Marcos also spoke with U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who affirmed Washington’s “ironclad commitment” to the U.S.-Philippine treaty alliance. Crisis Group expert Georgi Engelbrecht says the two countries are stressing defence cooperation against the backdrop of tensions with China in the South China Sea, including the Taiwan Strait, which is not far from the Philippines’ northern islands. Manila is keen to pursue diplomatic engagement with Beijing, but it also wants to strengthen its deterrence to curb Chinese ambitions in the Sea.

CAMBODIA–THAILAND  The Cambodian government announced Monday that it would introduce military conscription next year as frictions with Thailand persisted. There have been no further clashes since 28 May, when Thai troops killed a Cambodian soldier in a brief exchange of gunfire, but three Thai soldiers were wounded by a landmine on Thursday. Meanwhile, civilian tourists from both countries have stoked tensions at disputed temple ruins, known in Khmer as Ta Mone Thom and in Thai as Ta Muen Thom, including by engaging in physical altercations with troops. On Sunday, a former Thai paramilitary ranger assaulted a Cambodian soldier; the perpetrator was promptly arrested. Two days later, scuffles broke out among civilians and troops from both sides. Crisis Group expert Matt Wheeler says such incidents risk bringing escalation as well as inflaming popular sentiment and narrowing prospects for compromise.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  Members of the Alliance of Democratic Forces (ADF), a Ugandan rebel group affiliated with ISIS, murdered 66 people last week in attacks on four villages in Irumu territory in Ituri, a province in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The Congolese and Ugandan armies have been working together for over three years to root out the ADF; a few weeks ago, the two governments signed a memorandum extending the joint operations. Meanwhile, authorities in Kinshasa are holding talks with the M23, the Congolese insurgency that has made major advances in North and South Kivu, the two provinces below Ituri, in recent months. The M23 may be the strongest non-state armed group in the eastern DRC, says Crisis Group expert Onesphore Sematumba, but the Irumu massacres are a grim reminder that it is just the tip of the iceberg.

U.S.–RUSSIA  President Donald Trump announced a 50-day deadline for Russia to agree to a peace deal in Ukraine, during a meeting at the White House Monday with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Trump said the U.S. would impose “severe tariffs” if Moscow fails to come to terms with Kyiv, by which he seems to have meant secondary sanctions on key Russian trading partners. He also said European countries would be making multi-million-dollar purchases of U.S.-made weapons, including Patriot missile batteries, that they would pass on to Ukraine. Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim says the new supplies could open a way for Kyiv to acquire arms it needs without depending on Washington’s largesse. If they arrive quickly and in sufficient quantity, they will significantly help Ukraine bolster its air defences from what have been heavy Russian barrages. Thus far, Trump’s diplomacy with Russia has brought no change in either its conduct on the battlefield or its negotiating position. 

KENYA  Police cracked down on nationwide anti-government protests Monday, killing at least 31 people and injuring more than 100. There were reports of looting and several police stations set on fire. The demonstrations erupted a few weeks ago, following the death of a teacher in police custody. Tensions spiked further after officers shot a street vendor at close range during related demonstrations marking the one-year anniversary of a 2024 protest wave, during which police killed over 60 people agitating against tax hikes. President William Ruto said Wednesday police should shoot any protester caught damaging property “in the legs”. Crisis Group expert Meron Elias says it is imperative for the government to defuse tensions by formally denouncing police brutality, directing its forces to exercise restraint and holding officers accountable for their abuses.
LIBYA  Tensions in the capital Tripoli continued to rise this week as various armed groups nominally under the aegis of the Tripoli-based government (one of two entities claiming governing authority in the country) mobilised around the city. May saw the fiercest clashes in the city in years, after Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba ordered armed groups critical of his leadership to dissolve. Fighting between those groups and others loyal to Dabaiba killed eight civilians and forced hundreds of families to flee. Crisis Group expert Claudia Gazzini says these events reflect the prime minister’s attempt to consolidate his power amid UN efforts to promote a political process aimed at unifying the Tripoli-based government with its rival in the country’s east.

YEMEN  On Sunday, Israel carried out airstrikes on Yemen for the first time since the 24 June Israel-Iran ceasefire, hitting the Houthi-held ports of Hodeida, Ras Isa and Salif, as well as the Ras Kanatib power plant. The attacks came after the Houthis launched ballistic missiles at Israel on Saturday. The Houthis also sank two merchant vessels in the Red Sea this week, killing at least three crew members and leaving fifteen others missing. They claimed the ships were either headed for an Israeli port or had previously visited one. Since Israel began its military campaign in Gaza in October 2023, the Houthis have repeatedly attacked Red Sea shipping, as well as Israel, saying they are acting in solidarity with the Palestinians. Crisis Group expert Ahmed Nagi says continued exchanges of fire between Israel and the Houthis can only further disrupt Red Sea shipping and inflict greater harm on civilians.

AFGHANISTAN–IRAN  More than 4 million Afghans face deportation after Iran ordered all undocumented Afghan migrants to leave the country by this coming Sunday. If completed, it would be the largest deportation in the region in living memory. Following its 23 June ceasefire with Israel, Iran has intensified the repatriation of Afghan migrants, citing economic strain and national security concerns, with daily departures surging to a record high of 30,000. According to the International Organization for Migration, more than 256,000 migrants entered Afghanistan from Iran in June. Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss says Afghanistan is overwhelmed by the volume of returnees from Iran as well as Pakistan, which has also been carrying out deportations. Meanwhile, the UN refugee agency, which is responsible for assisting the new arrivals, is operating under severe funding constraints. Any additional increase in deportations risks exacerbating Afghanistan‘s already severe humanitarian and economic crisis.

MEXICO  Fighting between Los Chapitos and La Mayiza, the two most powerful factions of the Sinaloa Cartel, reached a peak in June, leaving over 210 people murdered and dozens more missing across Sinaloa state. The government has deployed thousands of troops to the state since the two factions began battling last September. Since then, more than 1,630 people have been killed and at least 1,660 reported missing. The surge in violence comes amid reports that Los Chapitos have forged a new alliance with their former rival, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. Crisis Group expert David Mora says such a pact would turn the Jalisco Cartel into Mexico’s most powerful organised crime group, potentially exacerbating the challenges for a government already struggling to contain insecurity in Sinaloa.

UKRAINE–U.S.  The Trump administration this week announced that it had frozen part of the military aid committed to Kyiv under the Biden administration, including critical air defence batteries and precision-guided munitions. Washington cited concerns about dwindling U.S. weapons stockpiles. The move comes as Russia intensifies aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities and presses on with its summer offensive. Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim says withholding arms deliveries, particularly air defence systems, could lead to more civilian casualties from Russian strikes, given Ukraine’s already limited ammunition supplies. The decision also risks emboldening Russia to escalate its offensive further.

BRAZIL  Two senior military officers confronted each other in court Tuesday, during a historic trial of several top brass, former President Jair Bolsonaro and others on charges of plotting a coup in 2022. Bolsonaro lost that year’s election to President Luiz Ignace Lula da Silva, after which thousands of his supporters stormed federal buildings in an effort to overturn the outcome. One of the officers, a colonel who has signed a plea bargain with prosecutors, alleges that the other, a general who was Bolsonaro’s defence minister and 2022 running mate, participated in a meeting about how to stop Lula from taking office. The general denies it. Crisis Group expert Renata Segura says it is remarkable that senior officers are facing trial in a civilian court. The Brazilian officer corps has in effect been exempt from civilian justice since the country made the transition from military dictatorship to democracy in 1985.  

INDIA–PAKISTAN In a breakthrough, India’s National Investigative Agency announced this week it had identified the three men who gunned down 26 tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir on 22 April as Pakistani nationals belonging to the Pakistan-based jihadist group Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, after arresting two Kashmiri men for allegedly sheltering the militants. Two days after the attack, authorities had published sketches of the three alleged perpetrators, presenting them at the time as two Pakistani nationals and a local Kashmiri. But despite having detained over 2,000 people and demolished the homes of nine suspected Kashmiri militants, until now they had been unable to get a clear lead substantiating New Delhi’s claim that Lashkar-e-Tayyaba was behind the massacre. In early May, India launched missiles at what it branded “terrorist infrastructure” deep in Pakistan, leading to a brief but intense conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours. Crisis Group expert Praveen Donthi says this week’s news may bolster its case for those strikes, as well as help bring the killers to justice.

UNITED NATIONS  The UN released its annual “Children in Armed Conflict” report last week, finding an alarming increase in “grave violations against children” in 2024. The number of violations climbed for the third consecutive year, the report says, to 41,370, the highest figure the UN has ever recorded. Places with particularly high levels of violence harming children included the Gaza Strip, as well as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Haiti, Nigeria and Somalia. Crisis Group experts Cristal Downing and Floor Keuleers say the report offers a compelling picture of how war can not only take children’s lives but also wreck the lives of children who survive it. For example, children may be maimed during attacks on hospitals and clinics, but they also lose access to health care. Similarly, children are deprived of education when schools are destroyed.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  Kigali and Kinshasa initialled a draft peace agreement Wednesday, following the latest round of U.S.-mediated talks, with a formal signing scheduled for 27 June. The draft agreement comes after months of heavy fighting in the eastern DR Congo’s North Kivu region, during which Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured substantial territory, including the provincial capital, Goma, in January. Crisis Group expert Richard Moncrieff says the announcement indicates breakthroughs on sticking points between the two sides, possibly concerning the withdrawal of Rwandan and M23 rebel forces from the eastern DRC. For any agreement to hold, outside powers must continue to exert real pressure to ensure Kigali’s compliance, while Kinshasa must reinforce its authority in the east to prevent future rebel incursions.

GAZA  Palestinians continue facing deadly violence at aid distribution sites set up by the U.S.- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). In one incident this week, Israeli troops opened fire on a crowd, killing 59 people and injuring 200. Nearly 400 Palestinians have been killed since the GHF rolled out its operations in late May, according to health authorities. The UN and other agencies have criticised the aid scheme as insufficient, unsafe and in breach of humanitarian principles. As the world’s attention shifts to the Israel-Iran war, Crisis Group analyst Amjad Iraqi says states must not allow Israel to continue wielding food as a weapon of war. Instead, they should back establishing a new UN blueprint for managing aid in Gaza.

NIGERIA  Gunmen killed over 100 people in the central state of Benue over the weekend, marking one of the deadliest assaults in the country this year. The incident comes amid persistent attacks on villages, in a region known for conflict between farmers and herders, which has claimed thousands of lives over the past two years. President Bola Tinubu ordered security agencies to track down the perpetrators after visiting the state on Wednesday. Crisis Group expert Nnamdi Obasi says the latest attacks have intensified scrutiny of the government’s pledge to restore security. Crackdowns alone are unlikely to end the violence unless they are paired with long-term measures, including sustained herder-farmer dialogue and comprehensive livestock sector reform.

CAMEROON  Government forces barred traffic in parts of Douala city Sunday, preventing opposition party leader Maurice Kamto from leaving his residence to meet with party members. A tense but peaceful encounter between police and opposition activists followed. Kamto, who has entered the presidential election scheduled for October, had just returned from France, where he held a rally challenging the ruling party. Crisis Group expert Arrey E. Ntui says a greater crackdown on dissent may lie ahead in the run-up to the poll, amid calls upon the 92-year-old incumbent, Paul Biya, not to run for an eighth term.

SUDAN  The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced Wednesday it had captured a strategic portion of the tri-border zone with Egypt and Libya, as the Sudanese army announced its withdrawal from the area. The previous day, the army accused the Libyan National Army (LNA), the force led by Khalifa Haftar that backs one of Libya’s two rival governments, of attacking Sudanese border posts. The LNA has previously provided logistical support to the RSF – both are backed by the United Arab Emirates – but Tuesday was the first time the army has alleged it is directly involved in Sudan’s civil war. Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael says the LNA’s involvement in the tri-border area risks drawing out the war further, as countries such as Egypt and Türkiye may step up their support for the Sudanese army in response.

YEMEN  An Israeli warship fired missiles at the Houthi-held port of Hodeida Tuesday, marking the first time Israel has hit Yemen by sea rather than by air during its post-October 2023 exchanges of fire with the Yemeni rebel movement. The Houthis have repeatedly attacked Red Sea shipping, as well as Israel, purportedly in solidarity with Hamas and the Palestinians in Gaza. The Israeli military threatened to impose a naval and aerial blockade in an attempt to deter the Houthis from using the port for military purposes. Crisis Group expert Ahmed Nagi says strikes on Hodeida, the main entry point for food and other aid for millions of Yemenis, risk further entrenching one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

BANGLADESH  Prosecutors opened their case against former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina at the country’s International Crimes Tribunal Sunday, charging her with crimes against humanity in trying to suppress the July 2024 popular uprising that forced her from office. They say they have audio recordings of her saying she had ordered government troops to shoot protesters. A UN report has accused her of doing the same. Crisis Group expert Tom Kean says Mohammad Yunus, the country’s interim leader, is under pressure to speed up trials of Hasina and others allegedly responsible for abuses during the unrest, with some Bangladeshis demanding that verdicts come down before elections for a new government. Some, despite the apparent weight of evidence, may thus perceive that the trials are political retribution. India, where Hasina fled after losing power, is likely to cite persecution as a reason for rejecting Dhaka’s requests for her extradition.

U.S.–SYRIA  Thomas Barrack, the U.S. Syria envoy and ambassador to Türkiye, told a Turkish TV channel Monday that the U.S. military is closing most of its bases in Syria, consolidating the remaining garrison at a single site. Some 1,500 U.S. troops are in the country, fighting ISIS alongside the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Crisis Group experts Michael Wahid Hanna and Nanar Hawach say the decision signals the Trump administration’s intent to pull U.S. personnel out of Syria, though a full withdrawal is some way off, as Washington wants to keep a hand in the counter-ISIS campaign for the time being. Meanwhile, the move may have the effect of encouraging the SDF, which has carved out an autonomous zone in Syria’s north east, to integrate with the central authorities in Damascus. It also accommodates Ankara, which eyes the SDF warily even while pursuing peace with the group’s PKK allies. Together with announcements about lifting sanctions, it indicates a major shift in U.S. Syria policy.

WESTERN SAHARA  The UK said Sunday it would back Morocco’s proposal for autonomy for the disputed territory of Western Sahara, over which Rabat claims sovereignty. It joins France, Spain and the U.S. in endorsing the Moroccan plan, which Rabat advanced in 2007. Previously, Morocco had nominally accepted the idea of a UN-sponsored referendum on self-determination for the territory. The pro-independence Polisario Front has long insisted that such a plebiscite be held. Crisis Group expert Riccardo Fabiani says Morocco has scored another win in its decades-long diplomatic campaign to promote autonomy as the best way to settle the Western Sahara conflict. It is notable, however, that London refrained from recognising Moroccan sovereignty over the territory, highlighting instead the need for all parties to agree to a solution. In so doing, the UK may give a boost to UN envoy Staffan de Mistura’s efforts to relaunch negotiations in the coming months.

GAZA  As Israel’s military intensified its ground offensive, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a U.S.-Israeli-backed entity, began rolling out its aid distribution on Tuesday. The UN and other aid organisations have criticised the initiative, describing it as inadequate for addressing the widespread hunger in Gaza, dehumanising to Palestinians and heavily politicised. The first distribution quickly descended into chaos, as thousands of Palestinians overwhelmed an aid site near Rafah, reportedly resulting in dozens of injuries and at least one death. Crisis Group expert Max Rodenbeck says international leaders must urgently act to rein in Israel’s latest campaign, which has caused 4,000 deaths and uses aid distribution to support military aims. A ceasefire, coupled with a large-scale aid operation through established UN-backed organisations, remains the most effective way to alleviate suffering and stave off famine in Gaza.

SUDAN  The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) resumed drone strikes this week, targeting military and civilian infrastructure in Port Sudan on the coast and Kosti in White Nile state. The renewed attacks come as Sudan’s army pushes deeper into West and South Kordofan, following its full capture of Khartoum earlier in May. Meanwhile, aid agencies warn of a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation, with a nationwide cholera outbreak resulting in at least 70 deaths this week in Khartoum alone. Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael says the RSF’s drone campaign has expanded the conflict to previously stable regions, deepening regional tensions and exacerbating Sudan’s health crisis. Outside powers need to apply more pressure on the warring parties and their backers to prevent the conflict from spiralling further out of control.

UKRAINE  Over the weekend, Russia launched its largest aerial assault on Ukraine since the war began, firing over 360 drones and missiles in a single night and causing multiple civilian casualties. The attacks coincided with an exchange of 2,000 prisoners of war under a deal reached in Istanbul on 16 May. Russia has proposed continuing talks there next week. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy warned that around 50,000 Russian troops are massing near the border of Ukraine’s Sumy oblast, raising fears of a new offensive. Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim says the Kremlin’s latest offer of dialogue appears aimed more at keeping the U.S. engaged than at ending the fighting anytime soon. It is likely Russia will seek territorial gains over the summer to strengthen its hand ahead of future negotiations.

GAZA  Israel launched a massive ground offensive Sunday, in a fresh bid to root out Hamas that the army said would involve “the displacement of most” of the starving Palestinian population. Operation Gideon’s Chariots, as Israel dubs it, entails razing many remaining neighbourhoods, concentrating residents in “humanitarian zones” and distributing minimal aid through private contractors. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday that ending the war will also involve “carrying out the Trump plan”, referring to the U.S. president’s expressions of support for emptying Gaza of its inhabitants. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says European governments, which have more vocally opposed Israel’s plans in recent days, should pursue swift, concrete action to deter Israel from advancing the operation further.

NIGERIA  A spate of jihadist attacks has displaced thousands in the country’s north east, including some 20,000 residents of Marte, a town in Borno state. Crisis Group expert Rinaldo Depagne says the mass flight from Marte is an apparent setback for the Nigerian military’s counter-insurgency campaign: soldiers had previously cleared the town of militants, allowing the population to return. The army says it has destroyed several jihadist strongholds and killed scores of fighters over the last month. But two groups – Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province – have nonetheless been able to step up raids on military installations and civilian areas.

U.S.–IRAN  The U.S. and Iran commenced a fifth round of negotiations over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program in Rome on Friday. It is a critical juncture, says Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez. Going into the talks, the two sides staked out irreconcilable positions on uranium enrichment, with Washington demanding that Tehran cease this activity and Iranian officials – including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – insisting that it is a right under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. That the parties are debating this fundamental issue will make it difficult for them to address the technical question of how Iran’s nuclear activity can be verifiably restricted and monitored, which is what they must do if the discussions are to progress toward an agreement.

INDIA–PAKISTAN  India and Pakistan reached a ceasefire Saturday after days of the most intense clashes between the two countries in decades. The fighting erupted after militants killed 26 civilians, mostly Hindu tourists, in Indian-administered Kashmir. India blamed the assault on Pakistan-sponsored groups. India claimed to have killed more than 100 militants in retaliatory strikes. Pakistan reported 51 deaths, including 40 civilians and eleven military personnel. Crisis Group experts Praveen Donthi and Samina Ahmed say the truce has averted what could have been a grave escalation between the nuclear-armed neighbours, but deep-rooted tensions remain. Outside powers should help maintain open lines of communication and back-channel diplomacy between New Delhi and Islamabad to stop any future crisis from spiralling out of control.

MALI  Mali’s military government issued a decree Tuesday dissolving all political parties, just days after suspending political activities nationwide. The decision, which officials say is meant to overhaul the country’s fragmented party system, reflects recommendations made during national consultations in April. That conference, largely boycotted by opposition groups, also called for extending military rule by five years. The government’s crackdown on political activity sparked rare protests in the capital, Bamako, in early May. Crisis Group expert Ibrahim Maiga says the decision undermines the principle of pluralism and accelerates the shrinking of civic space. Prospects for a democratic transition appear increasingly uncertain.

RUSSIA–UKRAINE  On Friday, Istanbul hosted the first official direct talks between Russia and Ukraine since May 2022. While both sides made modest concessions – including agreeing to face-to-face discussions without preconditions – their stances remain far apart. Prior to the negotiations, Ukraine called for a temporary, unconditional ceasefire and urged its Western friends to increase pressure on Russia, while the Kremlin appears to have pushed for an agreement that would impose neutrality on Ukraine and reduce its military capacity. The talks ended without meaningful progress, though the sides agreed to a major prisoner exchange and left the door open to further negotiations. Moscow also reportedly reiterated ceasefire terms Kyiv considers unacceptable, namely a full Ukrainian withdrawal from territories Russia claims to have annexed in 2022. Crisis Group expert Oleg Ignatov says how the U.S. positions itself in relation to this latest round of diplomacy will likely determine whether talks continue or quickly reach an impasse.

HAITI  Dozens of protesters marched through the capital Port-au-Prince Sunday calling on government officials to resign over their inability to curb rising gang violence. The demonstrations came two days after the U.S. designated the powerful gangs from the Viv Asanm coalition and the Gran Grif gang as foreign terrorist organisations. Crisis Group experts Diego Da Rin and Brian Finucane say the designations will likely worsen Haiti’s humanitarian crisis. They will hamper the work of aid organisations, many of which must negotiate with gangs to supply basic goods to the population. They may also make it easier for the U.S. to remove from its territory Haitian migrants whom it accuses of belonging to these gangs as it will be able to label them as “terrorists”. But they will do little to restore security in Haiti.

RUSSIA–UKRAINE  U.S. efforts to broker a lasting truce in the Russo-Ukrainian war have stalled and fighting, artillery and drone strikes continue, albeit at a somewhat reduced rate since Thursday, when a Russia-announced three-day unilateral ceasefire was due to begin. Crisis Group expert Oleg Ignatov says that the Kremlin’s failure to respond to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s offer of a mutual 30-day ceasefire paired with its offer to talk directly to Kyiv without preconditions underlines Moscow’s desire to have at least some elements of a deal in place before it agrees to halt hostilities for a protracted period.

YEMEN  U.S. President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that the U.S. will stop bombing the Houthi rebels in Yemen “effective immediately”, following mediation by Oman. The Houthis, for their part, agreed to halt attacks on U.S. vessels in the Red Sea. Hours earlier, however, Israeli air raids, launched in response to Sunday’s Houthi ballistic missile strike near Tel Aviv, severely damaged the airport in the Yemeni capital Sanaa as well as the vital port of Hodeida, killing at least three people and wounding dozens. The Israeli-Houthi conflict thus seems likely to continue, says Crisis Group expert Ahmed Nagi, but the U.S.-Houthi ceasefire is a step toward de-escalation in the Red Sea.

GAZA  Gaza’s humanitarian crisis is spiralling as Israel continues its military offensive and total blockade on the entry of aid and commercial goods – the longest such shutdown since the war began in October 2023. Last week, the UN Relief and Works Agency and World Food Programme announced that their food stocks in the enclave had run out completely. Prices for remaining food on the market have skyrocketed. Aid agencies warn that famine is unfolding in almost all of Gaza. Efforts by mediators to restore a ceasefire remain unsuccessful. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says the U.S. and others must press Israel to end its overt use of starvation as a weapon of war and to decouple talks with Hamas about releasing the 59 Israeli hostages from the provision of basic sustenance for Gaza’s 2.2 million people.

KASHMIR  India and Pakistan have exchanged small-arms fire along the Line of Control for several consecutive days, following last week’s militant assault in Indian-administered Kashmir that left 26 civilians dead. New Delhi has accused Pakistan of supporting the militants behind the attack, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday reportedly granting the armed forces discretion to respond as they see fit. On Wednesday, Pakistan’s information minister, Attaullah Tarar, warned that Indian military action could be imminent. Crisis Group expert Praveen Donthi says India’s international partners should make clear that any military escalation against Pakistan would carry unnecessary nuclear risks. While New Delhi should move swiftly to investigate the attack, and prosecute those responsible, it should also ease tensions in Kashmir through broader local engagement and confidence-building measures.

NIGERIA  Violence surged across northern Nigeria in April, killing over 320 people. In the north east, a resurgence of raids by Boko Haram and its splinter group, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), resulted in more than 100 deaths. On Monday alone, an ISWAP attack killed 26. Meanwhile, in the north-central zone, attacks on farming villages, which residents blamed on herders, killed over 220 – the highest monthly toll since December 2023. Crisis Group expert Nnamdi Obasi says President Bola Tinubu’s efforts to improve national security, including by increasing defence spending, have yet to yield the hoped-for results. Persistent personnel and equipment deficits continually undermine military and police efforts. In addition, the delay in advancing livestock sector reform, to help herders switch from nomadism to ranching, continually creates grounds for herder-farmer disputes.

BURKINA FASO  The military government announced Monday it had thwarted a “major plot” to overthrow junta leader Captain Ibrahim Traoré. Security Minister Mahamadou Sana stated on state television that several soldiers were arrested last week, with others still being sought. The government alleged that the plotters had backing from outside the country, pointing to neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire as the base of operations. Crisis Group expert Mathieu Pellerin says these developments highlight the increasingly tense political situation in Burkina Faso. Discontent with the military leadership could grow as it struggles to contain attacks by Islamist insurgents, which have reached record levels since January.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  The Congolese government and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels both released statements Wednesday pledging to halt fighting in the eastern DR Congo and to work toward a permanent truce, following more than a week of talks in Doha, Qatar. The talks were preceded by a Qatar-brokered meeting last month between Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame. Crisis Group expert Richard Moncrieff says the announcement is a welcome sign of progress for the Qatar-led initiative, but success will require continued pressure on Kinshasa, as well as Kigali, which backs the M23. Efforts should also be made to better align the Doha process with the African Union-led peace initiative for DR Congo.

YEMEN  Over the past month, the U.S. has significantly escalated its air campaign against the Houthis, targeting a broader range of sites with increased focus on the group’s military infrastructure and leadership. Despite sustained airstrikes, the Houthis have continued their fire at Red Sea shipping, claiming several attacks, including on a U.S. aircraft carrier and its escort vessels. Crisis Group expert Ahmed Nagi says Washington appears to believe that airstrikes alone will compel the Houthis to back down – a strategy that failed under President Joe Biden and is unlikely to succeed under President Donald Trump. The Red Sea crisis is mainly linked to the war in Gaza and U.S.-Iran tensions, both of which demand more diplomatic efforts.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  The government said at least 52 people were killed in shelling of Goma, capital of the embattled North Kivu province, late last week. Since late 2022, North Kivu has seen fierce combat between the Congolese army and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels, who captured Goma in January. There had been a lull in fighting as Qatar tried to get a fresh mediation process going. Kinshasa blamed the M23 for the attack, while the rebels attributed it to the government’s coalition, which includes Rwandan insurgents as well as Congolese militias called Wazalendo. A Wazalendo wing called CMC/FDP claimed to have fired the shells, saying it could help retake Goma with more government assistance. Meanwhile, tensions compelled southern African troops trapped in the city to withdraw hastily overland. Crisis Group expert Onesphore Sematumba says the attack could give the M23 a pretext for relaunching the war, as diplomacy, including the Qatari-led effort, struggles.

ECUADOR  Conservative Daniel Noboa won re-election as president on Sunday, defeating Luisa González, candidate of the left populist movement led by the influential former president Rafael Correa, by a wide margin. Despite initial demands by González for a recount, international observers said the process was smooth, and some in her party have already accepted defeat. Crisis Group expert Elisabeth Malkin says Noboa, an eager ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, is likely to continue hardline policies to fight the crime wave in Ecuador, which now has the highest homicide rate in Latin America. Drug trafficking groups have carved out smuggling routes through the country to ship cocaine via its ports, empowering local gangs who prey on citizens through kidnapping, extortion and other illicit activities. The murder rate fell soon after Noboa began his crackdown a year ago, but it has recently begun to tick up again.

U.S.–IRAN  A second round of talks about the Iranian nuclear program is due to start this coming Saturday in Rome, as questions swirl about whether the Trump administration has changed its negotiating position. Earlier, the administration’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, had indicated that the U.S. would not insist on dismantlement of the program, including the capacity to enrich uranium. This week, however, Witkoff seemed to equivocate on that issue, amid pushback from hawks in Washington. Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez says it is unclear what the U.S. stance will be when discussions with Iran resume. What is clear from twenty years of diplomacy on this file is that Tehran will not abandon its program entirely, citing its right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. If the U.S. demands dismantlement, the incipient talks will likely fizzle.

BRAZIL  Former President Jair Bolsonaro spoke to a rally of thousands in Sao Paulo Sunday, demanding pardons for all those accused of trying to overthrow President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva’s government in early 2023. The Supreme Court announced in late February that Bolsonaro and 33 others, including several generals, will soon stand trial on charges of attempting a coup. Bolsonaro’s Partido Liberal is trying to pass a law granting amnesty to those who stormed federal buildings after Lula’s inauguration. At the demonstration, Bolsonaro compared himself to U.S. President Donald Trump and far-right French politician Marine Le Pen, saying all three have endured persecution for their political ideas. Crisis Group expert Renata Segura says the trial – whatever its outcome – will loom large in Brazilian politics as the 2026 presidential campaign draws near. Authorities have barred Bolsonaro from running until 2030, but he is expected to try anyway. Meanwhile, the trial will likely energise Bolsonaro’s defenders, at a time when Lula’s approval ratings have dropped.

GAZA  UN Secretary-General António Guterres sharply criticised Israel’s actions in Gaza Tuesday, saying “the floodgates of horror have reopened” due to its total blockade of the strip. For over a month, Israel has prevented food, fuel, medicine and other supplies from entering the enclave, vowing to keep doing so until Hamas releases all the hostages still in its hands. Seven UN agencies released a joint statement Monday calling for a renewed ceasefire and highlighting critical breakdowns in food distribution and health care as the blockade continues. Crisis Group expert Richard Gowan says Guterres has consistently been outspoken about the scale of suffering among Gaza’s Palestinians, but so far with little effect on Israeli policy. The UN needs Washington and other powerful capitals to press Israel to let more aid into the strip and restore the truce.

U.S.–IRAN  The U.S. and Iran are due to hold high-level talks about the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program in Oman this coming Saturday. The two sides have been at odds over this subject since 2018, during President Donald Trump’s first term, when he withdrew the U.S. from the deal struck between Tehran and world powers three years earlier. There are conflicting narratives about the format of the new discussions: Iranian officials insist they will be indirect, while Trump has described them as direct. The meeting will likely reveal gaps between the two sides’ expectations, which may be so large that dialogue stalls. But the mere fact of the talks is important, says Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez, as finding sufficient common ground could help the sides scope out the parameters of more substantive negotiations to be pursued down the road.

GAZA  Israel this week expanded its offensive in Gaza, including ground operations in several cities and creation of a new military corridor between Rafah and Khan Younis. The renewed assault has killed over 1,300 Palestinians since 18 March, exacerbating displacement and hunger amid a month-long total siege. On 30 March, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel plans to take control of the strip in preparation for the Palestinians’ “voluntary migration” elsewhere. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says Israeli officials’ statements suggest that their objectives go beyond compelling Hamas to hand over the 59 remaining Israeli hostages and entail rendering Gaza uninhabitable and threatening it with depopulation. Outside powers should urgently apply pressure to restore a ceasefire.

HAITI  Thousands took to the streets of Port-au-Prince on Wednesday to protest spiralling gang violence and the government’s failure to protect civilians. Armed gangs now reportedly control 85 per cent of the capital and are expanding their reach into other parts of the country. On Monday, gang attacks in the city of Mirebalais enabled more than 500 inmates to escape from jail, while a government-leased helicopter used to transport security forces was disabled near the city the same day. Crisis Group expert Diego Da Rin says gangs are likely to take full control of Port-au-Prince if decisive action is not taken soon. Haiti’s foreign partners must provide an immediate increase in security assistance that corresponds to the gravity of the situation. Otherwise, gangs could overthrow the transitional government and install their own authorities.

LEBANON  Two rockets were launched from Lebanon toward Israel last Friday. Hizbollah denied involvement, as it had done after a similar volley six days earlier. Nevertheless, last Friday Israel carried out airstrikes on targets in southern Lebanon, which killed several people. It also hit an alleged Hizbollah drone storage facility in Beirut, its first attack on the Lebanese capital since the November ceasefire. On Tuesday, Israel again struck Beirut, killing two Hizbollah members and two civilians. Under the ceasefire’s terms, the Lebanese state must hold accountable anyone firing at Israel from Lebanon, says Crisis Group expert David Wood. But it needs sufficient time to identify the culprits. Israel’s swift retaliations do not help; instead, they risk precipitating a slide back into full-scale conflict.

EGYPT–GAZA  Cairo reportedly floated a proposal this week for restoring the ceasefire in Gaza, as the Palestinian death toll from Israel’s renewed offensive in the strip topped 800. According to the plan, which Egyptian security sources say Hamas and the U.S. have accepted, hostilities would again pause, and Hamas would release five of the remaining 59 hostages each week. At the end of the second week, Israel would begin withdrawing its forces from all of Gaza, in accordance with the terms of the original January truce agreement’s second phase. Neither Israel nor Hamas has directly commented on the scheme. Crisis Group expert Riccardo Fabiani says Egypt is anxious to get the ceasefire back in place. The longer the war goes on, Egyptian officials fear, the more likely Israel is to try pushing Palestinians out of Gaza into Sinai and the more Suez Canal revenue Egypt will lose due to attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on Red Sea shipping.

SUDAN  The Sudanese army announced Wednesday it had retaken central Khartoum, including the presidential palace and the airport, from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael says it is a major turning point in the country’s bloody civil war. The RSF had held much of the capital since early after the conflict began in mid-April 2023. Recapturing Khartoum greatly bolsters the army’s claim to be the legitimate national authority and deals the RSF a heavy blow. Peace is not yet at hand, however. The RSF still controls swathes of territory in Darfur and Kordofan, where conflict rages. Fighting is also spilling into neighbouring Chad and South Sudan, heightening tensions in the region. Diplomats should urgently push both the Sudanese army and the RSF to engage in negotiations, putting a peaceful resolution over continued military escalation.

UNITED STATES  Congressional Democrats called upon top Trump administration officials to resign this week, following publication of an article showing the officials discussing the 15 March U.S. bombing of Houthi-linked targets in Yemen in a Signal group chat, outside the government’s formal channels. A journalist was included in the chat, apparently in error. Crisis Group expert Brian Finucane says the incident suggests a further breakdown of U.S. decision-making processes about matters of war and peace. The U.S. Constitution gives Congress, not the executive branch, the power to declare war, but legislators have never authorised military action against the Houthis. Nor has the administration publicly explained the legal basis for strikes in this instance, when the substantive debate seems to have occurred in an informal executive branch forum.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi met with Rwandan President Paul Kagame Tuesday in Doha, Qatar, with the two leaders agreeing in their final statement on the need for the M23 rebel group to halt its offensive in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. It was their first tête-à-tête in over a year. On Wednesday, however, the M23 moved to seize the strategic town of Walikale, opening the way to Kisangani, one of the country’s largest cities. Crisis Group expert Richard Moncrieff says it is as yet unclear whether the M23, now in control of more territory than ever in the mineral-rich east, will stop its onslaught, which has already killed thousands.

GAZA  Israel broke a two-month ceasefire Tuesday, launching devastating airstrikes across Gaza that have so far killed at least 600 Palestinians. The Israeli army also moved Wednesday to retake the Netzarim corridor that bisects the strip. The fresh offensive comes after Hamas rejected Israeli and U.S. efforts to prolong the ceasefire’s first phase, insisting that talks advance to deal with a full Israeli withdrawal and Gaza’s reconstruction, as the parties had agreed in January. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says Israeli officials are signalling an even more aggressive campaign to dismantle Gaza’s surviving governing infrastructure and maybe to annex parts of the territory, expelling the Palestinians living there. Returning to the original ceasefire parameters is paramount.

RUSSIA–UKRAINE  Russia and Ukraine traded more fire this week, with intense Russian drone strikes on two hospitals and other civilian buildings just hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to halt attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in a Tuesday telephone call with U.S. President Donald Trump. On Wednesday, Trump spoke with Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy, later expressing optimism that a full ceasefire could be near. Crisis Group expert Olga Oliker says the increased interest in ceasefire talks may signal a step forward, but given how little sign Moscow has given that it is ready to offer concessions, there is no guarantee that other steps toward a lasting ceasefire will follow.

BANGLADESH  The World Food Programme announced this week it would chop food aid for almost one million Rohingya refugees by more than half to just $6 per person per month, starting on 1 April. The reason is a severe funding shortfall, caused in part by the Trump administration’s suspension of most U.S. foreign assistance. The U.S. has been the largest donor to the Rohingya crisis response, contributing more than half of the almost $600 million that was raised in 2024. The cuts are likely to increase pressure on the Bangladeshi government to allow more livelihood opportunities for Rohingya to reduce their dependence on aid. Crisis Group expert Thomas Kean says Rohingya armed groups and criminal gangs, which have lately stepped up recruitment in camps in Bangladesh, will likely take advantage as the refugees’ hardship deepens.

RUSSIA–UKRAINE  Kyiv accepted a U.S. proposal this week for a 30-day ceasefire in its battle to fend off Russia’s 2022 invasion. At a press conference Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said “the idea in itself is the right one” but pointed to “nuances” that he said required “painstaking research”. Among the questions he raised were whether Ukraine would keep receiving Western arms shipments during the truce and what would happen afterward. The Trump administration’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, met with Putin in Moscow that evening. Crisis Group expert Oleg Ignatov says the Russian president’s reaction shows he does not want a ceasefire at present, at least not without guarantees of gains for the Kremlin, but he does want to keep the door open to dialogue with his U.S. counterpart.

SYRIA  People throughout Syria celebrated Monday’s landmark agreement between the interim government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which hold large parts of the country’s north east, to integrate the latter’s military and civilian institutions into the Syrian state by year’s end. The pact came at a critical moment, as Damascus dealt with the fallout from deadly clashes on the Mediterranean coast that have exacerbated inter-communal tensions and brought an international backlash. Crisis Group expert Dareen Khalifa says the agreement could prove a turning point in efforts to reunify the war-torn country, though key details remain to be worked out. Concerted diplomacy to that end will be needed in the months ahead.  

GAZA  At a Tuesday summit in Cairo, the Arab League endorsed an Egyptian scheme for reconstructing Gaza after the 2023-2025 war, geared toward establishing a Palestinian state there and in the West Bank. The plan, which is partly intended to counter U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal that the U.S. “take over” the strip, emptying it of its Palestinian population, was welcomed by the Palestinian Authority and Hamas but rejected by Israel. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says the document is vague about key political and security questions. Nonetheless, it offers a starting point for diplomatic conversations about getting to a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and a sustainable vision for its recovery.

PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN  Clashes between Pakistani and Afghan forces have continued unabated since Monday along the disputed border between Pakistan’s Khyber district and Afghanistan’s Nangarhar province. Fighting in the area has been occurring sporadically since mid-February, though it has now increased in intensity, with both sides using heavy weaponry to fire on military installations. The skirmishes were sparked by Taliban attempts to build outposts for their troops on the frontier as well as Islamabad’s refusal to reopen the vital Torkham crossing, which has been shut since 21 February, exacting a heavy economic toll on both countries. If differences are not resolved, the confrontation risks escalating, says Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss. Each country accuses the other of harbouring militants who stage deadly cross-border raids.

U.S.-MEXICO  The White House announced Thursday it would suspend tariffs on Mexican imports, following a telephone conversation between Presidents Donald Trump and Claudia Sheinbaum. The 25 per cent levies, which had taken effect two days earlier, are now on hold until 2 April. The Trump administration first threatened the measures (along with comparable trade penalties on Canada) in early February, saying the two U.S. neighbours have been lax in interdicting shipments of the illegal drug fentanyl and in curbing migration. Mexicans were confounded by the tariffs’ imposition, says Crisis Group expert David Mora. Sheinbaum had already done a great deal to respond to U.S. requests, sending 10,000 additional troops to the country’s northern border, transferring 29 drug kingpins to U.S. custody and stepping up raids on fentanyl labs. Much of the Mexican public has rallied behind Sheinbaum, who has an 85 per cent approval rating. 

COLOMBIA  Tensions continued to heighten in Colombia’s Catatumbo region, along the Venezuela border, as the leftist National Liberation Army (ELN) insurgency carried out a string of bombings near the city of Cúcuta on 20 February, hitting police stations and other public buildings. These attacks come just a month after the ELN launched another assault that left 63 dead and more than 80,000 displaced. Crisis Group expert Elizabeth Dickinson says the ELN is moving aggressively to consolidate its hold on the border region’s key trafficking corridors and expel a rival armed group, the 33rd Front. The violence has severe consequences for civilians, several of whom have been assassinated. The widespread planting of landmines is also preventing displaced families from returning home.

SUDAN  The Sudanese army continued to gain ground from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). On Sunday, the army announced it had seized al-Gitaina, south of the capital Khartoum, and broken a two-year siege of al-Obeid in North Kordofan. The same day, the RSF signed a charter with allied armed groups, aiming to establish a parallel government. Despite the RSF’s setbacks, no end to the conflict is in sight, says Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael.  The two main belligerents are looking to further entrench themselves in their respective zones of influence. Mediation is unlikely while the army is pushing to retake Khartoum. Outside powers should nonetheless look for opportunities to de-escalate the conflict and work hard for its eventual resolution.

SYRIA  The interim government convened a national dialogue conference in Damascus on Tuesday to chart a path for Syria’s political transition following the Assad regime’s collapse in December. While the interim government has pledged an inclusive transition, critics voiced concern about the limited participation and lack of transparency in the conference. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which control much of Syria’s north east, were excluded from the talks. Crisis Group expert Nanar Hawach says the conference ended up being a largely symbolic exercise. For Syria’s transition to succeed, the interim government should ensure that the political process is based on maximum transparency, inclusion and participation.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  The Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group seized Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province, on Sunday, prompting a looting spree by residents in shops, markets and warehouses storing humanitarian supplies. This follows the rebels’ seizure in January of Goma – the capital of North Kivu province. They now seem determined to continue their advance in the country’s east. Meanwhile, on Saturday, 15 February, Angolan President João Lourenço stepped down as mediator between Kigali and Kinshasa. Crisis Group expert Pauline Bax says regional and Western countries should work together to press Rwanda, which has thousands of troops in the area supporting the M23, to withdraw from the eastern DR Congo and put measures in place to relieve a growing humanitarian crisis. The M23’s offensive in the east has killed over 3,000 people and displaced around 700,000.

RUSSIA-EU  On Wednesday, the EU agreed to impose new sanctions on Russia days before the third anniversary of its all-out invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions package came as the U.S. and Russia held talks in Saudi Arabia about ending the war and starting a new era of U.S.-Russian partnership. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country would not accept a peace agreement that did not consider Ukraine’s interests, and Trump falsely blamed Ukraine for starting the war with Russia. Crisis Group experts Oleg Ignatov and Lucian Kim say that the contrast between Russia-U.S. rapprochement and EU sanctions illustrates a deepening rift in translatlantic relations.

WEST BANK  The Israeli army demolished dozens of residential buildings in Tulkarem refugee camp on Tuesday as part of a deadly campaign in the occupied West Bank that has killed at least 44 Palestinians, uprooted 45,000 and caused the largest mass displacement of Palestinians in the territory since 1967. Crisis Group expert Tahani Mustafa says this military operation comes as Israel appears increasingly emboldened to pursue West Bank annexation, applying tactics that recall its operations in Gaza. The latest Israeli raids in the West Bank, which started two days after the ceasefire in Gaza, have mostly targeted refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarem.

ECUADOR  Voters went to the polls Sunday for the first round of the presidential election, with the incumbent Daniel Noboa and his leading challenger Luisa González finishing in a near tie. The two will now compete in an April runoff. Election day was largely peaceful, with no major incident, despite the severe criminal violence that has gripped the country in recent years. Both Noboa and González raised questions of possible fraud, but electoral observation missions from the European Union and Organization of American States promptly affirmed that the balloting was transparent and well-run. Crisis Group expert Glaeldys González Calanche says the results highlight Ecuador’s profound political polarisation, with opinion split between right- and left-leaning blocs. Whoever wins the second round will need to negotiate with the opposition to govern effectively and to curb the growing power of organised crime.

UKRAINE  U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth sent shock waves through Europe this week when he said the NATO membership Ukraine has long sought is “unrealistic”. Together with news that U.S. President Donald Trump may meet soon with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the statement fuelled speculation that Washington and Moscow will negotiate over Ukraine’s fate without consulting Kyiv and its European backers. Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim says the Ukrainian government looks to be in a precarious position. It has long seemed unlikely that Ukraine could achieve war goals like restoring its pre-2014 borders. Security guarantees it has wanted from a negotiated settlement – like getting a spot in NATO or foreign troops stationed on its territory – may also be out of reach. But discarding these possibilities before talks begin gives the U.S. a weaker hand vis-à-vis the Kremlin. Though Hegseth later walked back some of his remarks, and other U.S. officials, including Vice President JD Vance, made contradictory comments about keeping all options on the table, jitters remain.

U.S.–MIDDLE EAST  President Donald Trump’s incendiary proposal to remove Palestinians from Gaza and take over the enclave continued to reverberate this week, as Jordan’s King Abdullah II became the first Arab leader to visit the White House following the November election. Trump has said the Palestinians could resettle in Jordan and Egypt, indicating that he might use the considerable U.S. assistance that goes to both countries to press their governments to acquiesce. Keen to avoid friction with his country’s biggest patron, the Jordanian king did not publicly confront Trump, says Crisis Group expert Michael Wahid Hanna. But popular outrage at the notion of forcibly displacing Palestinians is widespread in the Arab world, particularly with the scale of devastation in Gaza becoming clearer as the tenuous ceasefire proceeds. Sources indicated Wednesday that Egyptian President Abdelfattah al-Sisi will decline White House invitations if the idea remains on the table, a sign of growing pushback.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  Despite the Congo River Alliance coalition – headed by the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group – declaring a unilateral ceasefire to go into effect Tuesday, it seized more territory in the country’s east, including the city of Nyabibwe, on Wednesday. UN agencies reported that around 3,000 people were killed and hundreds of thousands displaced in fighting around the major city of Goma last week with cases of sexual and gender-based violence soaring. Crisis Group expert Richard Moncrieff says a lasting ceasefire requires more vigorous regional diplomacy and a firmer international stance against Rwanda’s aggression.

ISRAEL-PALESTINE  Meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump proposed that the U.S. “take over” the Gaza Strip and resettle its 2.2 million Palestinians elsewhere, drawing fierce international condemnation, including from Arab states. Meanwhile, Israel continued an offensive in the northern West Bank, targeting Palestinian militants but displacing and harming many civilians. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says Trump’s statement could undermine the fragile ceasefire deal in Gaza and embolden Israel’s far-right government to try pushing Palestinians out of one or both of the occupied territories.

UKRAINE Amid heightened anticipation that peace negotiations may start soon, President Volodomyr Zelenskyy announced Tuesday that he is prepared to talk with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who last week also signalled readiness for negotiations, but not directly with Zelenskyy. With the new U.S. administration saying it wants to help to end the war, Moscow and Kyiv have both been trying to make battlefield advances to ensure a better negotiating position, says Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim. Now almost in its fourth year, the war has killed over 45,000 Ukrainian soldiers and approximately 200,000 Russian soldiers, according to Zelenskyy.

LEBANON  Violence erupted at the Lebanese-Israeli border this week, though the fragile truce between Hizbollah and Israel is largely holding. Last Friday, citing security concerns, the Israeli government announced that it would not complete its troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon by Sunday, as required under the ceasefire deal struck in November. Starting on Sunday, displaced residents attempted to return to villages that remained under Israeli occupation, coming under Israeli fire. Israel killed 24 people over two days and wounded well over 100 more. Lebanon has accepted 18 February as the new pullout deadline. Crisis Group expert David Wood says Israel should remove its soldiers promptly, lest their presence precipitate a slide back into conflict. A protracted occupation also risks burnishing Hizbollah’s claims that Israel will never leave Lebanon unless compelled by the group’s armed resistance.

SUDAN  The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan, announced Monday that he is seeking arrest warrants for individuals responsible for atrocities in Sudan’s West Darfur region, urging accountability for war crimes including sexual violence. Fighting between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese army has continued in Darfur and other parts of Sudan, with the RSF intensifying its assault on North Darfur’s capital El Fasher and the army reportedly making advances in Khartoum. Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael says neither side has a path to military victory. Without urgent diplomacy by external powers, especially those with a stake in the conflict, human suffering is likely to worsen in Sudan.

UNITED NATIONS  Two Israeli laws that curtail the operations of the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) in Gaza and the West Bank took effect Thursday. The legislation imposes a de facto ban on UNRWA, the body responsible for helping Palestinian refugees, by outlawing its work in Israel (including in Israeli-occupied East Jerusalem, where its West Bank field headquarters is located) and barring Israeli officials from interacting with its staff. Crisis Group expert Daniel Forti says the ban will cut off a lifeline for Gaza’s population, which UNRWA supplies with humanitarian aid and basic services, and risk destabilising the Palestinian enclave during the fragile first phase of the truce between Israel and Hamas. The laws will also have a severe economic impact, as UNRWA employs nearly 17,000 Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank.

COLOMBIA  Peace negotiations between the government and the largest remaining insurgency, the National Liberation Army (ELN), collapsed in mid-January, after the armed group launched an offensive in the Catatumbo region along the border with Venezuela. In coordinated attacks, the ELN assassinated dozens of social leaders and ex-combatants of the former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), which it accused of being sympathetic to the Frente 33, a rival armed group, displacing over 30,000 civilians in the process. Crisis Group expert Elizabeth Dickinson says the violence marks a dangerous inflection point in Colombia’s conflict. Tensions among armed groups could erupt into all-out fighting along various fronts. The government should use channels of communication it has established through years of peace efforts with the armed groups to help stop the crisis from spiralling out of control.

HAITI  In a report released Wednesday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince, risks being completely overrun by gangs unless international actors urgently bolster support for the Kenya-led multinational mission in the country. Over the weekend, Kenya deployed 217 additional police, adding to around 150 officers sent by Guatemala and an advance team of seven soldiers dispatched by El Salvador earlier this month. But while the reinforcements provide much-needed support to Haiti’s overstretched police force, says Crisis Group expert Diego Da Rin, the mission remains far short of its planned 2,500 personnel. As the UN Security Council weighs the possibility of switching to a UN peacekeeping mission, external actors must act quickly and decisively to enhance support for the current mission – or it will become increasingly difficult for anyone to curb the escalating gang violence.

MYANMAR  A China-brokered ceasefire between the regime and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), an ethnic Kokang armed group in northern Shan State, took effect on 18 January. Under the deal, the MNDAA has reportedly agreed to withdraw its forces from Lashio, an important town it seized from regime forces last August, by this coming June. China has reopened trade gates on the Kokang border, which it had closed to press the MNDAA to halt its military actions. Crisis Group expert Richard Horsey says the ceasefire demonstrates China’s leverage over both the regime and the MNDAA. But it could be a delaying tactic by the MNDAA aimed at easing Chinese pressure without immediately handing over Lashio. The border reopening offers much-needed relief to Kokang residents facing shortages of goods and services but falls short of restoring broader Myanmar-China trade, most of which remains blocked.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  Government forces announced on Monday the recapture of several towns in North Kivu province, though the situation on the ground remains fluid as they fight M23 rebels for territory. The M23 had seized the strategic town of Masisi in early January. Fighting between the rebels, documented by the UN and others to be backed by Rwanda, and the Congolese army has intensified in North Kivu’s Lubero and Masisi territories since December. According to the UN, more than 100,000 people have been displaced by violence in the eastern DR Congo since the year began. Crisis Group expert Onesphore Sematumba says the M23 advances over recent weeks further complicate negotiations between Kinshasa and Kigali to end the conflict. Diplomats, including at the African Union, should step up support for the Angola-led mediation effort, which stalled last month.

GAZA  After fifteen months of war, Hamas and Israel reached a ceasefire and hostage-prisoner exchange deal Wednesday, meant to take effect Sunday. In the first of three planned stages, Hamas is to release 33 of the remaining hostages it took in October 2023, while Israel would free a number of Palestinian prisoners and gradually withdraw troops from the strip to enable displaced people to return. The deal also aims to significantly increase the amount of humanitarian aid getting into Gaza. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says the U.S. and regional powers need to keep pressing the parties to get the fragile agreement into the next phases, which provide for additional hostage-prisoner swaps, and to fulfil the humanitarian provisions for Gaza’s starving population.

LEBANON  On Monday, Lebanese lawmakers made a surprising choice of prime minister, Nawaf Salam, after filling the country’s years-long presidential vacuum on 9 January. Parliament elected army commander Joseph Aoun to the presidency, which had lain vacant since November 2022. Many observers then expected Najib Mikati, Hizbollah’s preferred choice, to become premier, given the group’s reluctant support for Aoun. Instead, most deputies backed Salam, a respected jurist considered outside Lebanon’s ruling class. Crisis Group expert David Wood says the two appointments offer hope for long overdue reform, though both leaders will need to secure buy-in from Hizbollah and other factions. Otherwise, Lebanon could descend into yet more political paralysis, starting during Salam’s efforts to form a government.

CHAD  The presidential guard killed eighteen people in the capital N’Djamena Wednesday, in what the government claimed was a foiled attack on the presidential palace. Crisis Group expert Enrica Picco says the circumstances are unclear, however, as the alleged assailants were carrying no firearms. The ambiguity surrounding the incident has further jangled nerves among city residents. In any case, the events are a sign that the authorities are on high alert, with heavier military deployments in N’Djamena in recent weeks. The government’s alleged support for the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, coupled with tensions in its relations with traditional partner France, have reportedly sown divisions in the army, the president’s key support base.

GAZA  Israeli airstrikes continued throughout the strip this week, with the official Palestinian death toll since 7 October 2023 topping 46,000. Winter weather is exacerbating the desperate humanitarian crisis, leading to several deaths among the hundreds of thousands of displaced. Meanwhile, ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, which had regained momentum last month with Qatari, Egyptian and U.S. mediation, appear to have stalled once more. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has undermined truce talks by adding new demands and insisting on “total victory”, may be more amenable to a deal after the U.S. presidential inauguration, as Donald Trump’s team has encouraged. But a ceasefire will be insufficient to alleviate the suffering in Gaza without substantial pressure on Israel to allow in far more aid.

U.S.–SUDAN  The U.S. State Department said Tuesday it had determined that the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have committed genocide in the course of Sudan’s civil war. It has imposed sanctions on RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, as well as seven RSF-owned companies and an unnamed person based in the United Arab Emirates for “their role in procuring weapons for the RSF”. The announcement followed a 2023 U.S. determination that both the RSF and the Sudanese army, the other main belligerent, had committed war crimes, while the RSF had also committed crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing. Concerning this week’s finding, Crisis Group expert Magnus Taylor says the RSF has undoubtedly perpetrated many heinous acts during the war, including mass killings targeted at certain ethnic groups. But how much U.S. sanctions will advance rather than hinder the immediate necessity of ending the horrific war is unclear. The army may use the genocide determination as justification for avoiding serious negotiations with the RSF, which in turn is unlikely to halt its ruinous military campaign.

AFGHANISTAN  The Taliban-led economy ministry told NGOs last week that if they continue to employ Afghan women, the de facto authorities will revoke their licences and suspend their operations. The warning, coming weeks after another decree that barred women from getting medical training, suggests an impending crackdown on NGOs, including those delivering life-saving aid. Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss says these decisions put humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan at risk, as donors recoil at the tightening restrictions on women’s rights. Needs might soon be increasing, moreover, due to disputes with Pakistan over insurgent activity along the border, which could lead Islamabad to deport Afghan refugees, as it has done in the past. The Taliban should let humanitarian NGOs carry out their mission unfettered.

SYRIA  The caretaker government faced backlash this week after its education ministry floated curriculum changes that were widely perceived as imposing a conservative Islamist slant on teaching, raising concerns about the trajectory of governance. The criticism prompted the acting education minister to say curricula would largely remain unaltered pending review by specialist committees. The main amendments for the time being, the minister added, will pertain to removing symbols glorifying the Assad regime, adopting the new revolutionary flag and adjusting Islamic education courses. To avoid inflaming tensions that could endanger the post-Assad transition, says Crisis Group expert Dareen Khalifa, the new leaders should maintain a hands-off approach to education. Any divisive decision could be seen as undermining their pledge to safeguard Syria’s social and cultural diversity.

UNITED STATES  A pickup truck plowed into New Year’s revelers in New Orleans, Louisiana early Wednesday morning, killing fourteen and injuring many more. The driver, a U.S. army veteran, wounded two police officers before being killed himself in a subsequent shootout. Authorities disabled several improvised explosive devices both inside the truck and in the immediate vicinity. President Joe Biden said the attacker appears to have been “inspired by ISIS” (an ISIS flag was also found inside the truck). In Las Vegas, Nevada, another truck laden with fuel canisters and firework mortars blew up outside the Trump International Hotel Wednesday, killing the driver (a serving U.S. soldier) and injuring seven bystanders. It so far appears the two incidents are unrelated. It is critical, says Crisis Group expert Michael Wahid Hanna, that U.S. politicians allow the investigations to proceed without speculating or instigating panic. The decades-long war on terror shows the pitfalls of leveraging public unease for political ends.

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