Investing.com — Goldman Sachs estimates the 2026 World Cup will add 40,000 jobs to US payrolls in June, with effects reversing in following months as temporary positions end.
The tournament runs from June 11 to July 19 across the US, Mexico, and Canada. An estimated 5 to 6 million fans will attend 78 matches in the US, hosted by 11 metropolitan areas that represent roughly one third of US GDP and one quarter of US employment and the CPI index.
Goldman based its projections on historical data from the 1994 US World Cup, 20 years of Super Bowls, and Olympic Games in Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Salt Lake City.
The bank expects payroll employment to rise 40,000 above trend in June, gain 10,000 in July, then decline by 15,000 in August after the tournament ends. Further reversals are expected in subsequent months. Job gains will concentrate in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, and transportation, while business services may see earlier hiring for support activities.
Goldman projects retail sales growth will rise 0.3 percentage points in June and 0.1 percentage points in July. The firm estimates GDP growth will gain 0.1 percentage points in the second quarter and 0.05 percentage points in the third quarter, followed by a small decline in the fourth quarter.
Consumer spending and exports of services to foreign tourists will drive the GDP boost. Goldman expects an extra 500,000 to 1 million foreign tourists to arrive in June and July.
The bank forecasts core CPI inflation will rise 0.03 percentage points in June and an additional 0.01 percentage points in July, then decline by 0.01 percentage points in August and beyond. Core PCE is expected to increase 0.04 percentage points in June. Hotel prices have already risen, and city-level CPI data shows restaurant meals and transportation prices typically jump in host cities during major sporting events.
Goldman notes that effects of major sporting events tend to be short-lived and reverse in following months.
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